Macroscope
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Nominal yields, real yields and inflation

Pick a country and switch indicators on: they all line up on one time axis. You can see what changed together, what came first, where official forecasts point and how far past ones missed. Under the chart: observations computed from what is on screen.

US Treasury yield: 10 years · month% per year4.99 % per year 2026-09
024
US TIPS real yield: 10 years · month% per year2.64 % per year 2026-09
02
US 10-year inflation compensation · monthpercentage points2.35 percentage points 2026-09
012
actual

Without JavaScript you see a ready view: United States — US Treasury yield: 10 years · month, US TIPS real yield: 10 years · month, US 10-year inflation compensation · month, 2003–2026. Every country has its own page that works without JavaScript (list below); the data is in the API.

How the indicators changed

  • US Treasury yield: 10 years · month: 4.27 % per year in 2003 → 4.99 % per year in 2026 (+0.7 pp). Low: 0.93 % per year in 2020; +4.1 pp since then. The trend broke around 2020: direction reversed (−0.16 → +0.62 a year).
  • US TIPS real yield: 10 years · month: 1.98 % per year in 2003 → 2.64 % per year in 2026 (+0.7 pp). The trend broke around 2020: direction reversed (−0.14 → +0.52 a year).
  • US 10-year inflation compensation · month: 2.29 percentage points in 2003 → 2.35 percentage points in 2026 (+0.1 pp). Low: 0.25 percentage points in 2008; +2.1 pp since then.

What changed at the same time

  • The fastest rise of "US Treasury yield: 10 years · month" was in 2016–2026: 2.49 % per year → 4.99 % per year. Over the same years: US TIPS real yield: 10 years · month 0.56 % per year → 2.64 % per year; US 10-year inflation compensation · month 1.93 percentage points → 2.35 percentage points.

How the indicators relate

  • US Treasury yield: 10 years · month and US TIPS real yield: 10 years · month (2003–2026, 24 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.67). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.
  • US Treasury yield: 10 years · month and US 10-year inflation compensation · month (2003–2026, 24 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.41); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.47).

Markets: growth, falls and valuations

  • The last selected point is 2026-09, the latest published month for that year, not a full-year average. Monthly observations and their source flags are available in the detailed dataset.
  • The last selected point is 2026-09, the latest published month for that year, not a full-year average. Monthly observations and their source flags are available in the detailed dataset.
  • The last selected point is 2026-09, the latest published month for that year, not a full-year average. Monthly observations and their source flags are available in the detailed dataset.

Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.

Key findings

  • UN projection of 2024: in 33 of 42 countries that already report 2024–2025 data, births are below the medium variant; in 8, below the lower bound of the 95% interval.
  • Japan: 709k births in 2024 (including children of foreign nationals). Even the latest official projection (IPSS 2023, medium) expected this level only in 2042, 18 years later. An earlier projection (IPSS 2002, medium) expected it in 2045.
  • Taiwan: 108k births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (NDC 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2036, 11 years later. An earlier projection (NDC 2016, medium) expected it in 2057.
  • China: 7.92M births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (UN WPP 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2050, 25 years later. An earlier projection (UN WPP 2022, medium) expected it in 2054.
  • United States: 1.60 children per woman in 2024. The SSA 2015 projection assumed 2.04 for that year, a gap of −22%.
  • South Korea: 0.80 children per woman in 2025. Projections made before 2020 expected 1.00–1.38 for 2025, while the 2021 and 2023 projections turned out lower than reality: fertility rose slightly in 2024–2025. Errors go both ways.
  • World: 67% of people live in countries with fertility below replacement (2.1), 31% below 1.5. World population is still growing: the UN expects a peak of about 10.3B in 2084.

All forecast-vs-actual checks →

How it works

  • A source for every number. Links go to the primary publication: the statistical office, the UN, the projection archive.
  • Forecast against fact. Next to a figure: what official projections expected for it and how far reality departed.
  • Association is not cause. Moving together in time suggests where to look; the observations under the chart always say so and check a link not only in levels but also in year-to-year changes.
  • Open data. Every table is available as CSV and JSON to check, recompute and reuse.
  • For programs and AI agents. The same data through an API and an MCP server, no page scraping: how to connect.

Data as of 7 October 2026

Country pages

Each country has a page that works without JavaScript: key indicators, observations, past UN and IMF forecasts against actual data, every series with source links. Countries →