Macroscope
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Market size and trading activity

Pick a country and switch indicators on: they all line up on one time axis. You can see what changed together, what came first, where official forecasts point and how far past ones missed. Under the chart: observations computed from what is on screen.

Stock market capitalisation / GDP% of GDP224.04 % of GDP 2025
0100200
Equity trading value / GDP% of GDP180.26 % of GDP 2025
0100200300
Domestic equity turnover ratio% per year68.5 % per year 2024
0200400
Listed domestic companiescompanies3,908 companies 2025
4,0006,0008,000
actual

Without JavaScript you see a ready view: United States — Stock market capitalisation / GDP, Equity trading value / GDP, Domestic equity turnover ratio, Listed domestic companies, 1990–2025. Every country has its own page that works without JavaScript (list below); the data is in the API.

How the indicators changed

  • Stock market capitalisation / GDP: 51.88 % of GDP in 1990 → 224.04 % of GDP in 2025 (+172 pp). The trend broke around 1999 and 2010: +11 → −3.3 → +6.9 a year.
  • Equity trading value / GDP: 34.08 % of GDP in 1990 → 180.26 % of GDP in 2025 (+146 pp). Peak: 319.88 % of GDP in 2008; the latest value is 44% lower. The trend broke around 2008: direction reversed (+14 → −6.7 a year).
  • Domestic equity turnover ratio: 65.69 % per year in 1990 → 68.5 % per year in 2024 (+2.8 pp). Peak: 407.63 % per year in 2008; the latest value is 83% lower. The trend broke around 2008: direction reversed (+11 → −10 a year).
  • Listed domestic companies: 6,429 companies in 1990 → 3,908 companies in 2025 (−39%). Peak: 8,090 companies in 1996; the latest value is 52% lower. The trend broke around 1996 and 2008: +283 → −296 → −9.2 a year.

What changed at the same time

  • The fastest rise of "Stock market capitalisation / GDP" was in 2011–2021: 100.26 % of GDP → 204.62 % of GDP. Over the same years: equity trading value / GDP 263.12 % of GDP → 193.35 % of GDP; domestic equity turnover ratio 262.43 % per year → 94.49 % per year; listed domestic companies 4,171 companies → 4,774 companies.

How the indicators relate

  • Stock market capitalisation / GDP and equity trading value / GDP (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.39); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). Changes line up best when shifted by 1 year: "Stock market capitalisation / GDP" moves first, then "Equity trading value / GDP" (r = 0.62).
  • Stock market capitalisation / GDP and domestic equity turnover ratio (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.10); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.58). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.
  • Stock market capitalisation / GDP and listed domestic companies (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.50); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28).

Markets: growth, falls and valuations

  • In 2025, listed domestic equity capitalisation was 224% of GDP. 100% of the 36 observed years in the selected window were at or below that level. This describes history, not a crash probability. The ratio also changes with listings, foreign revenues and GDP; it is not P/E or proof of a bubble.

Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.

Key findings

  • UN projection of 2024: in 33 of 42 countries that already report 2024–2025 data, births are below the medium variant; in 8, below the lower bound of the 95% interval.
  • Japan: 709k births in 2024 (including children of foreign nationals). Even the latest official projection (IPSS 2023, medium) expected this level only in 2042, 18 years later. An earlier projection (IPSS 2002, medium) expected it in 2045.
  • Taiwan: 108k births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (NDC 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2036, 11 years later. An earlier projection (NDC 2016, medium) expected it in 2057.
  • China: 7.92M births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (UN WPP 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2050, 25 years later. An earlier projection (UN WPP 2022, medium) expected it in 2054.
  • United States: 1.60 children per woman in 2024. The SSA 2015 projection assumed 2.04 for that year, a gap of −22%.
  • South Korea: 0.80 children per woman in 2025. Projections made before 2020 expected 1.00–1.38 for 2025, while the 2021 and 2023 projections turned out lower than reality: fertility rose slightly in 2024–2025. Errors go both ways.
  • World: 67% of people live in countries with fertility below replacement (2.1), 31% below 1.5. World population is still growing: the UN expects a peak of about 10.3B in 2084.

All forecast-vs-actual checks →

How it works

  • A source for every number. Links go to the primary publication: the statistical office, the UN, the projection archive.
  • Forecast against fact. Next to a figure: what official projections expected for it and how far reality departed.
  • Association is not cause. Moving together in time suggests where to look; the observations under the chart always say so and check a link not only in levels but also in year-to-year changes.
  • Open data. Every table is available as CSV and JSON to check, recompute and reuse.
  • For programs and AI agents. The same data through an API and an MCP server, no page scraping: how to connect.

Data as of 7 October 2026

Country pages

Each country has a page that works without JavaScript: key indicators, observations, past UN and IMF forecasts against actual data, every series with source links. Countries →