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Life expectancy: UN forecasts

Pick a country and switch indicators on: they all line up on one time axis. You can see what changed together, what came first, where official forecasts point and how far past ones missed. Under the chart: observations computed from what is on screen.

Life expectancy, menyears76.9 years 2023
7580
Life expectancy, womenyears81.8 years 2023
8082.585
actualcurrent UN forecastUN low variantUN 95% interval

Without JavaScript you see a ready view: United States — Life expectancy at birth, men, Life expectancy at birth, women, 1990–2035. Every country has its own page that works without JavaScript (list below); the data is in the API.

How the indicators changed

  • Life expectancy, men: 71.8 years in 1990 → 76.9 years in 2023 (+5.1 years). The trend broke around 2012: direction reversed (+0.22 → −0.12 a year).
  • Life expectancy, women: 78.8 years in 1990 → 81.8 years in 2023 (+3 years). Threshold: above 80 years since 2022. The trend broke around 2014: direction reversed (+0.11 → −0.06 a year).

What changed at the same time

  • The fastest rise of "Life expectancy, men" was in 1994–2004: 72.4 years → 75 years. Over the same years: life expectancy, women 79.1 years → 80.1 years.
  • Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): life expectancy, men 76.4 years → 76.9 years; life expectancy, women 81.2 years → 81.8 years.

How the indicators relate

  • Life expectancy, men and life expectancy, women (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.98). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.

Forecasts vs actual

  • Life expectancy, men: past UN projections. The outcome was above the projection in none of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and below in 12; median difference −2.3 years. The biggest miss: the 2008 revision expected 78.7 years for 2020–2025; the outcome was 75.1 years (for the years of the period so far).
  • Life expectancy, men: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2030 — 78.1 years, 2050 — 81.5 years, 2100 — 87.8 years.
  • Life expectancy, women: past UN projections. The outcome was above the projection in none of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and below in 12; median difference −1.9 years. The biggest miss: the 2000 revision expected 83.3 years for 2020–2025; the outcome was 80.6 years (for the years of the period so far).
  • Life expectancy, women: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2030 — 82.7 years, 2050 — 85.1 years, 2100 — 90.7 years.

Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.

Key findings

  • UN projection of 2024: in 33 of 42 countries that already report 2024–2025 data, births are below the medium variant; in 8, below the lower bound of the 95% interval.
  • Japan: 709k births in 2024 (including children of foreign nationals). Even the latest official projection (IPSS 2023, medium) expected this level only in 2042, 18 years later. An earlier projection (IPSS 2002, medium) expected it in 2045.
  • Taiwan: 108k births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (NDC 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2036, 11 years later. An earlier projection (NDC 2016, medium) expected it in 2057.
  • China: 7.92M births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (UN WPP 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2050, 25 years later. An earlier projection (UN WPP 2022, medium) expected it in 2054.
  • United States: 1.60 children per woman in 2024. The SSA 2015 projection assumed 2.04 for that year, a gap of −22%.
  • South Korea: 0.80 children per woman in 2025. Projections made before 2020 expected 1.00–1.38 for 2025, while the 2021 and 2023 projections turned out lower than reality: fertility rose slightly in 2024–2025. Errors go both ways.
  • World: 67% of people live in countries with fertility below replacement (2.1), 31% below 1.5. World population is still growing: the UN expects a peak of about 10.3B in 2084.

All forecast-vs-actual checks →

How it works

  • A source for every number. Links go to the primary publication: the statistical office, the UN, the projection archive.
  • Forecast against fact. Next to a figure: what official projections expected for it and how far reality departed.
  • Association is not cause. Moving together in time suggests where to look; the observations under the chart always say so and check a link not only in levels but also in year-to-year changes.
  • Open data. Every table is available as CSV and JSON to check, recompute and reuse.
  • For programs and AI agents. The same data through an API and an MCP server, no page scraping: how to connect.

Data as of 7 October 2026

Country pages

Each country has a page that works without JavaScript: key indicators, observations, past UN and IMF forecasts against actual data, every series with source links. Countries →