Macroscope
RU

More old than young

Pick a country and switch indicators on: they all line up on one time axis. You can see what changed together, what came first, where official forecasts point and how far past ones missed. Under the chart: observations computed from what is on screen.

People 65+persons, 1 July36.8M 2023
010M20M30M
Children under 15persons, 1 July14.5M 2023
15M20M25M30M
People 80+persons, 1 July12.8M 2023
05M10M
Children under 5persons, 1 July4.14M 2023
05M10M
actual

Without JavaScript you see a ready view: Japan — People aged 65 and over, Children under 15, People aged 80 and over, Children under 5, 1950–2023. Every country has its own page that works without JavaScript (list below); the data is in the API.

How the indicators changed

  • People 65+: 4.23M in 1950 → 36.8M in 2023 (×8.7). The trend broke around 1986 and 2017: +236k → +756k → +309k a year.
  • Children under 15: 30.4M in 1950 → 14.5M in 2023 (−52%). The trend broke around 1969 and 1976: −401k → +429k → −301k a year.
  • People 80+: 389k in 1950 → 12.8M in 2023 (×33). The trend broke around 1979 and 2000: +34.1k → +159k → +354k a year.
  • Children under 5: 11.9M in 1950 → 4.14M in 2023 (−65%). The trend broke around 1959 and 1973: −506k → +103k → −106k a year.

What changed at the same time

  • The fastest rise of "People 65+" was in 2004–2014: 25.1M → 33.4M. Over the same years: children under 15 17.7M → 16.5M; people 80+ 6.02M → 9.64M; children under 5 5.81M → 5.2M.
  • Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): people 65+ 32.5M → 36.8M; children under 15 16.7M → 14.5M; people 80+ 9.29M → 12.8M; children under 5 5.27M → 4.14M.

How the indicators relate

  • People 65+ and children under 15 (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
  • People 65+ and people 80+ (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
  • People 65+ and children under 5 (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.

Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.

Key findings

  • UN projection of 2024: in 33 of 42 countries that already report 2024–2025 data, births are below the medium variant; in 8, below the lower bound of the 95% interval.
  • Japan: 709k births in 2024 (including children of foreign nationals). Even the latest official projection (IPSS 2023, medium) expected this level only in 2042, 18 years later. An earlier projection (IPSS 2002, medium) expected it in 2045.
  • Taiwan: 108k births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (NDC 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2036, 11 years later. An earlier projection (NDC 2016, medium) expected it in 2057.
  • China: 7.92M births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (UN WPP 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2050, 25 years later. An earlier projection (UN WPP 2022, medium) expected it in 2054.
  • United States: 1.60 children per woman in 2024. The SSA 2015 projection assumed 2.04 for that year, a gap of −22%.
  • South Korea: 0.80 children per woman in 2025. Projections made before 2020 expected 1.00–1.38 for 2025, while the 2021 and 2023 projections turned out lower than reality: fertility rose slightly in 2024–2025. Errors go both ways.
  • World: 67% of people live in countries with fertility below replacement (2.1), 31% below 1.5. World population is still growing: the UN expects a peak of about 10.3B in 2084.

All forecast-vs-actual checks →

How it works

  • A source for every number. Links go to the primary publication: the statistical office, the UN, the projection archive.
  • Forecast against fact. Next to a figure: what official projections expected for it and how far reality departed.
  • Association is not cause. Moving together in time suggests where to look; the observations under the chart always say so and check a link not only in levels but also in year-to-year changes.
  • Open data. Every table is available as CSV and JSON to check, recompute and reuse.
  • For programs and AI agents. The same data through an API and an MCP server, no page scraping: how to connect.

Data as of 7 October 2026

Country pages

Each country has a page that works without JavaScript: key indicators, observations, past UN and IMF forecasts against actual data, every series with source links. Countries →