Macroscope
RU

Later marriage and living alone

Pick a country and switch indicators on: they all line up on one time axis. You can see what changed together, what came first, where official forecasts point and how far past ones missed. Under the chart: observations computed from what is on screen.

Age at first marriage: menyears, median30.8 years, median 2025
22.52527.530
Age at first marriage: womenyears, median28.4 years, median 2025
2022.52527.5
One-person household share% of households29.48 % of households 2025
15202530
Average household sizepeople per household2.5 people per household 2025
2.52.7533.25
actual

Without JavaScript you see a ready view: United States — Age at first marriage: men, Age at first marriage: women, One-person household share, Average household size, 1960–2025. Every country has its own page that works without JavaScript (list below); the data is in the API.

How the indicators changed

  • Age at first marriage: men: 22.8 years, median in 1960 → 30.8 years, median in 2025 (+8 years, median). The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: +0.13 → 0 → +0.17 a year.
  • Age at first marriage: women: 20.3 years, median in 1960 → 28.4 years, median in 2025 (+8.1 years, median). The trend broke around 1975: change sped up (+0.06 → +0.2 a year).
  • One-person household share: 13.1 % of households in 1960 → 29.48 % of households in 2025 (+16 pp). The trend broke around 1980: change slowed down (+0.61 → +0.14 a year).
  • Average household size: 3.33 people per household in 1960 → 2.5 people per household in 2025 (−0.83 people per household). The trend broke around 1966 and 1981: −0.01 → −0.04 → 0 a year.

What changed at the same time

  • The fastest rise of "Age at first marriage: men" was in 2010–2020: 28.2 years, median → 30.5 years, median. Over the same years: age at first marriage: women 26.1 years, median → 28.1 years, median; one-person household share 26.71 % of households → 28.18 % of households; average household size 2.59 people per household → 2.53 people per household.
  • Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): age at first marriage: men 29.2 years, median → 30.8 years, median; age at first marriage: women 27.1 years, median → 28.4 years, median; one-person household share 27.99 % of households → 29.48 % of households; average household size 2.54 people per household → 2.5 people per household.

How the indicators relate

  • Age at first marriage: men and age at first marriage: women (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 1.00); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
  • Age at first marriage: men and one-person household share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.
  • Age at first marriage: men and average household size (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.

Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.

Key findings

  • UN projection of 2024: in 33 of 42 countries that already report 2024–2025 data, births are below the medium variant; in 8, below the lower bound of the 95% interval.
  • Japan: 709k births in 2024 (including children of foreign nationals). Even the latest official projection (IPSS 2023, medium) expected this level only in 2042, 18 years later. An earlier projection (IPSS 2002, medium) expected it in 2045.
  • Taiwan: 108k births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (NDC 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2036, 11 years later. An earlier projection (NDC 2016, medium) expected it in 2057.
  • China: 7.92M births in 2025. Even the latest official projection (UN WPP 2024, medium) expected this level only in 2050, 25 years later. An earlier projection (UN WPP 2022, medium) expected it in 2054.
  • United States: 1.60 children per woman in 2024. The SSA 2015 projection assumed 2.04 for that year, a gap of −22%.
  • South Korea: 0.80 children per woman in 2025. Projections made before 2020 expected 1.00–1.38 for 2025, while the 2021 and 2023 projections turned out lower than reality: fertility rose slightly in 2024–2025. Errors go both ways.
  • World: 67% of people live in countries with fertility below replacement (2.1), 31% below 1.5. World population is still growing: the UN expects a peak of about 10.3B in 2084.

All forecast-vs-actual checks →

How it works

  • A source for every number. Links go to the primary publication: the statistical office, the UN, the projection archive.
  • Forecast against fact. Next to a figure: what official projections expected for it and how far reality departed.
  • Association is not cause. Moving together in time suggests where to look; the observations under the chart always say so and check a link not only in levels but also in year-to-year changes.
  • Open data. Every table is available as CSV and JSON to check, recompute and reuse.
  • For programs and AI agents. The same data through an API and an MCP server, no page scraping: how to connect.

Data as of 7 October 2026

Country pages

Each country has a page that works without JavaScript: key indicators, observations, past UN and IMF forecasts against actual data, every series with source links. Countries →