Population
64k persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Population on 1 July. UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024; past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Guernsey
All indicators of the Macroscope base for Guernsey, with sources. Below: what past UN and IMF releases projected and what actually happened.
What the data shows
Computed with the same code as the observations under the main chart and in the API (get_insights). Moving together in time does not prove a cause.
How the indicators changed
- Fertility (TFR): 2.33 in 1950 → 1.36 in 2023 (−41%). Peak: 2.48 in 1964; the latest value is 45% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1971, below 1.5 since 2015. The trend broke around 1965 and 1977: +0.02 → −0.07 → 0 a year.
- Births: 0.74k in 1950 → 0.52k in 2023 (−29%). The trend broke around 1984 and 1990: 0k → +0.01k → −0.01k a year.
- Population: 45k in 1950 → 64k in 2023 (+42%).
- Net migration: on average 0.09k a year in the 1950s, 0.48k a year in the 1960s, 0k a year in the 1970s, 0.42k a year in the 1980s, 0.07k a year in the 1990s, 0.04k a year in the 2000s, 0.13k a year in the 2010s, 0.38k a year in the 2020s.
- Life expectancy, men: 67.8 years in 1950 → 81 years in 2023 (+13 years). Thresholds: above 70 years since 1976, above 80 years since 2022. The trend broke around 1976 and 2013: +0.03 → +0.28 → 0 a year.
What changed at the same time
- The fastest decline of "Fertility (TFR)" was in 1964–1974: 2.48 → 1.73. Over the same years: births 0.74k → 0.69k; population 49.3k → 54.3k; net migration 0.52k a year → −0.09k a year; life expectancy, men 70.1 years → 69.4 years.
- Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.54 → 1.36; births 0.58k → 0.52k; population 62k → 64k; net migration 0.08k a year → 0.38k a year; life expectancy, men 80.8 years → 81 years.
Against other countries
- Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: 1954.
Forecasts vs actual
- Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −7.3%.
- Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.45 (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.53 (+12% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.03.
- Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −17%.
- Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.49k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.42k (−19% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.17k.
- Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +0.8%.
- Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 62.8k (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 52.9k (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 37.5k.
- Why the UN missed the population. The 2022 projection for 2023: 63.5k; the UN's 2024 estimate: 64k (+0.8%). Parts of the gap (plus means more people than projected): the starting population +0.3k, births −0.2k, deaths −0.2k (more deaths than expected), migration +0.6k; the largest: migration.
- Net migration: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2030 — 0.14k a year, 2050 — 0.11k a year, 2100 — 0.08k a year.
- Life expectancy, men: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2030 — 82.1 years, 2050 — 84.6 years, 2100 — 89.8 years.
UN projections vs actual
Solid line: actual data, UN WPP 2024 estimates; births and fertility from national statistics from the last year they matched the UN estimate (the UN's figures for the latest years are partly its own projection). Dashed: medium variants of past UN revisions. The table shows what each revision expected for the latest year (or five-year period) with actual data.
Population
persons, 1 July
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 63.5k | 64k | +0.8% |
Births
births per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.63k | 0.52k | −16.8% |
Total fertility rate
children per woman
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 1.47 | 1.36 | −7.3% |
Deaths
thousand deaths per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0 | 1 | +22.9% |
Infant mortality
deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 6.1 | 5.8 | −4.3% |
Net migration
persons per year
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 0.1k | 0.38k | 0k a year |
Life expectancy at birth, women
years
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 84.6 | 85.6 | +1 yrs |
Life expectancy at birth, men
years
- Actual
- UN 2022
- UN 2024, medium
| Release | Target period | Horizon | Expected | Actual | Actual vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN 2022 | 2023 | 1 year | 81.3 | 81 | −0.3 yrs |
* The five-year period is not over: the projection is compared with the mean of its years so far (UN facts end in 2023).
All indicators
Demography
Births
0.52k births per year latest value, 2023
Live births per calendar year. UN WPP 2024 and national statistics (64 countries, 2015-2025).
Deaths
1 thousand deaths per year latest value, 2023
Deaths per calendar year (UN estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024); past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Natural change
−0.1 thousand persons per year latest value, 2023
Births minus deaths in the year (UN). Negative: natural decrease, more deaths than births.
Rate of natural change
−1.2 per 1,000 population per year latest value, 2023
Births minus deaths in the year per 1,000 people (UN). With the net migration rate it makes up population growth.
Life expectancy at 65
20.9 years latest value, 2023
Years a person aged 65 would still live at the mortality rates of the year; both sexes (UN).
Infant mortality
5.8 deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births latest value, 2023
Children per 1,000 live births who die before their first birthday (UN); past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Total fertility rate
1.36 children per woman latest value, 2023
Average number of children a woman would have at the age-specific fertility rates of the year.
Life expectancy at birth, women
85.6 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn girl would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Life expectancy at birth, men
81 years latest value, 2023
Years a newborn boy would live at the mortality rates of the year (UN).
Median age
44 years latest value, 2023
Age that divides the population in two halves (UN).
Mean age of mothers at childbirth
30.7 years latest value, 2023
Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children of any order (UN).
Sex ratio at birth
105.4 boys per 100 girls latest value, 2023
Boys born per 100 girls born (UN).
Crude marriage rate
5.25 marriages per 1,000 people latest value, 2012
Marriages in the year per 1,000 people: marriages from national offices (Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, the USA, the UK, Russia, Brazil and others, where they publish more than the international databases), Eurostat and the UN, divided by the UN WPP 2024 population. Where most births are within marriage, marriages come before births.
Source: UN Demographic Statistics Database (UNdata) and Demographic Yearbook
Marriages
0.33k marriages a year latest value, 2012
Marriages in the year (couples). National offices (Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, the USA, the UK, Russia, Brazil and others), Eurostat for Europe, the UN for the rest; by year of registration or of occurrence, as each country counts.
Source: UN Demographic Statistics Database (UNdata) and Demographic Yearbook
Old-age dependency
34 persons 65+ per 100 aged 20-64 latest value, 2020
Persons aged 65+ per 100 aged 20-64, every five years (UN).
Children under 15
9 thousand persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Children aged 0-14 on 1 July: the sum of the five-year groups 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 (UN; estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024).
Children under 5
3 thousand persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
Children aged 0-4 on 1 July (UN; estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024).
People aged 65 and over
14 thousand persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
People aged 65 and over on 1 July: the sum of the five-year groups from 65-69 to 100+ (UN; estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024).
People aged 80 and over
4 thousand persons, 1 July latest value, 2023
People aged 80 and over on 1 July: the sum of the five-year groups from 80-84 to 100+ (UN; estimate to 2023, medium variant from 2024).
Migration
Net migration
0.38k persons per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year (UN estimate and projection). Past UN revisions for forecast checks.
Net migration rate
5.94 per 1,000 population per year latest value, 2023
Immigrants minus emigrants per year per 1,000 people: UN net migration divided by the population on 1 July. Comparable across countries of any size.
Security
Deaths in organised violence
0 persons a year latest value, 2025
Deaths in state-based conflict, non-state conflict and one-sided violence against civilians, by where the events took place (UCDP GED, best estimate). 0 means no organised violence above UCDP thresholds (25 deaths a year in one conflict). Events in Gaza and the West Bank are counted for Palestine.
Deaths in organised violence per 100,000
0 per 100,000 people a year latest value, 2025
Deaths in organised violence (UCDP GED) per 100,000 people (population: UN WPP 2024).
Armed conflict in the country
0 0 none, 1 minor, 2 war latest value, 2025
Strongest armed conflict of the year in which the government or territory of the country is disputed (UCDP/PRIO ACD): 1 = 25-999 battle-related deaths, 2 = war, 1,000 or more. In interstate conflicts every primary party is marked even if the fighting was elsewhere (the USA in Iraq, 2003). Historical states are mapped to present-day countries by territory (USSR, Yugoslavia, South Vietnam and others).
Battle deaths
0 persons a year latest value, 2025
Soldiers and civilians killed in combat in state-based armed conflicts on the territory of the country. 1946-1988: PRIO Battle Deaths (best estimate, else the low one; a conflict of several countries split equally); from 1989: UCDP GED by place of the events. For the same conflicts in 1989-2008 PRIO is 1.6 times UCDP, so the drop in 1989 is partly a change of source. One-sided violence against civilians is not included.
Battle deaths per 100,000
0 per 100,000 people a year latest value, 2025
Battle deaths on the territory of the country (PRIO to 1988, UCDP GED from 1989) per 100,000 people (population: UN WPP 2024), from 1950.
Health
Reported COVID-19 cases
27,148 by report dates in year latest value, 2022
Sum of WHO weekly reports by report date in a completed year, requiring at least 50 nonmissing values. Reported events, not total infections/deaths. Negative revisions retained; testing and reporting coverage changed.
Source: WHO: reported COVID-19 data
Everyday environment
Land temperature anomaly
1.96 °C latest value, 2025
FAOSTAT ET, Meteorological year. Published exact annual central values only; missing/suppressed values and inequality bounds are excluded from the annual series. Source flags, units, period and release retained in typed tables. Food supply is availability, not actual intake; land areas are not prices; diet cost uses source PPP definitions; land temperature is relative to 1951–1980.
Source: FAO: FAOSTAT
Science, space and technology
GitHub developer accounts at year end
2,477 accounts latest value, 2025
Fourth-quarter end snapshot; includes inactive accounts/organizations/repositories. GitHub Innovation Graph: public GitHub activity only. Geography reflects mode location, not nationality. Suppressed small groups are not zeros; not a professional-programmer count.
Source: GitHub Innovation Graph
GitHub organizations at year end
134 organizations latest value, 2025
Fourth-quarter end snapshot; includes inactive accounts/organizations/repositories. GitHub Innovation Graph: public GitHub activity only. Geography reflects mode location, not nationality. Suppressed small groups are not zeros; not a professional-programmer count.
Source: GitHub Innovation Graph
GitHub repositories at year end
3,434 repositories latest value, 2025
Fourth-quarter end snapshot; includes inactive accounts/organizations/repositories. GitHub Innovation Graph: public GitHub activity only. Geography reflects mode location, not nationality. Suppressed small groups are not zeros; not a professional-programmer count.
Source: GitHub Innovation Graph
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