1. MigrationSouth Africa

   South Africa: in 2020–2023 net migration was higher than all 12 UN projections assumed

   The 2022 projection, for example, expected that in 2023 58.5k more people would arrive than leave; by the UN's current estimate, 228k more arrived than left. Projections 1998–2022 are all checked against the same recent years, so they are not 12 independent tests.

   Source: UN World Population Prospects 1998–2024; national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• South Africa now has more people than Italy
• Life expectancy goals: 4 of 7 came true on time. Russia expected 75 years by 2020 and got 71.6
• Promises to cut public debt in 6 countries: 1 of 7 came true on time. France promised under 60% of GDP, got 91.7%
• GDP growth plans for a deadline year in 5 countries: 2 of 7 came true. Nigeria expected 7% in 2020 and got minus 6.4%
• Jobs promises in 6 countries: from 25% to 259% of the promised number. 1 of 9 came true on time
• Unemployment promises: 1 of 10 came true on time, Hollande’s, by 0.1 point. Spain expected about 7%, got 21.4%

All findings →