Life expectancy goals: 4 of 7 came true on time. Russia expected 75 years by 2020 and got 71.6
- South Africa: 63 by 201966.1
- Ukraine: +3 years, to 74.873.3
- Russia: 70 by 201571.4
- Russia: 74 by 201872.9
- Russia: 75 by 202071.6
- China: 74.5 by 201576.3
- China: 77.3 by 202077.9
Life expectancy at birth in the deadline year, years
4 of 7 came true on time. Russia expected 75 years by 2020 and got 71.6.
China and South Africa passed their marks early. Russia fell short of 74 by 2018 even before the pandemic: 72.91. Ukraine gained a year and a half by 2020 instead of three.
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The governments of four countries wrote into their plans how high life expectancy would rise by a given year. Here the goal is beside what came out in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- South Africa: 63 by 2019 — Government of South Africa (MTSF 2014-2019), 2014 years at birth
promised 63 by 2019; fact 66 (105%). Life expectancy was 66.1 years in 2019 against 63; the 63 mark was passed in 2014.
Всемирный банк, WDI (оценки ООН) / World Bank WDI (UN estimates)
- Russia: 70 by 2015 — Vladimir Putin, 2007 years
promised 70 by 2015; fact 71 (102%). The goal was 70 years by 2015; 70 was passed in 2012 (70.23), and 2015 reached 71.38.
- China: 74.5 by 2015 — State Council of China, 2011 years
promised 75 by 2015; fact 76 (102%). The plan was 74.5 years by 2015; in 2015 it was 76.3 years.
- China: 77.3 by 2020 — CPC Central Committee and State Council, 2016 years
promised 77 by 2020; fact 78 (101%). The target was 77.3 years in 2020; the 2020 census gave 77.93; in 2024 it was 79.0, the level targeted for 2030.
- Russia: 74 by 2018 — Vladimir Putin, 2012 years
promised 74 by 2018; fact 73 (99%). The goal was 74 years by 2018; it was 72.91. The highest was 73.41 in 2023.
- Ukraine: +3 years, to 74.8 — Petro Poroshenko, 2015 years at birth (71.8 in 2014 + 3)
promised 75 by 2020; fact 73 (98%). 2020 life expectancy: 73.3 years, 1.5 years above 2014 (71.8), against +3; the peak was 74.0 in 2017.
Всемирный банк, ожидаемая продолжительность жизни при рождении (SP.DYN.LE00.IN)
- Russia: 75 by 2020 — Vladimir Putin, 2008 years
promised 75 by 2020; fact 72 (95%). The goal was 75 years by 2020; it was 71.58. The highest was 73.41 in 2023.
Goals: verbatim from South Africa’s government programme, the «Ukraine 2020» strategy decree, the Russian President’s concept, decree and speech, and China’s State Council plans. Fact: Rosstat, China’s statistical yearbook, the World Bank (South Africa, Ukraine). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Ukraine’s goal is plus 3 years by World Bank estimates; from 71.8 in 2014 that is 74.8. Since 2014 Ukraine’s statistics do not cover Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. China’s 2011 plan assumed 73.5 years in 2010, but the census gave 74.83, so the goal was below the level already reached. In South Africa the gain came mostly from HIV treatment. The 2020 deadlines fell on the pandemic.
A question for this picture
What is a life expectancy goal worth if it is reached before it is written down?