Jobs promises in 6 countries: from 25% to 259% of the promised number. 1 of 9 came true on time
- US, Romney: 12m86%
- US, Trump: 10m in 202164%
- Ireland: 200k by 202079%
- Ireland: 200k by 2025259%
- Colombia: 1.6m by 202248%
- South Africa: 275k a year25%
- South Africa: 5m in 10 years38%
- England: 3m apprentices74%
- Spain: 20m in work96%
Fact at the deadline, % of the promised number
From 25% to 259% of the promised number. 1 of 9 came true on time.
Only Ireland reached its goal, in 2025, counting from pandemic-hit 2020. Spain missed 20 million in work because of the pandemic: 19.8 million worked in 2019. Romney and Trump in 2020 lost their elections; their numbers are checked against what came under their rivals.
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Candidates and governments promise how many jobs a term will bring. Here are nine such promises from six countries beside how many were actually added.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Ireland: 200k by 2025 — Government of Ireland (Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Greens, Micheál Martin), 2020 thousand in work above the 2020 average
promised 200 by 2025; fact 517 (259%). In 2025 Ireland had 517,000 more people in work than the 2020 average, and 486,000 more than in 2019.
- Spain: 20m in work — People's Party (2015 manifesto; Mariano Rajoy), 2015 thousand employed aged 15+, annual average
promised 20,000 by 2020; fact 19,202 (96%). In 2020 an average of 19.2 million people were employed against 20 million (19.8 million in 2019); 20 million was passed in 2022 at 20.5 million.
Eurostat, lfsa_egan (обследование рабочей силы; совпадает с EPA INE), выпуск 10.09.2026
- US, Romney: 12m — Mitt Romney, 2012 million jobs since January 2013
promised 12 by 2016; fact 10 (86%). From January 2013 to January 2017 payrolls grew by 10.4 million, not 12 million.
- Ireland: 200k by 2020 — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 thousand in work above the 2016 average
promised 200 by 2020; fact 157 (79%). Employment was 189,000 above 2016 in 2019, 157,000 above in 2020 (the pandemic) and 291,000 above in 2021.
- England: 3m apprentices — Conservative Party (Theresa May), 2017 thousand apprenticeship starts since May 2015
promised 3,000 by 2020; fact 2,211 (74%). From May 2015 to July 2020, 2.21 million apprenticeships were started in England; about 509,000 a year in 2015/16 and 322,500 in 2019/20.
DfE, Apprenticeships and traineeships: academic year 2019/20
- US, Trump: 10m in 2021 — Donald Trump, 2020 million jobs since January 2021
promised 10 by 2021; fact 6 (64%). From January to November 2021 payrolls grew by 6.4 million.
- Colombia: 1.6m by 2022 — Iván Duque's government, 2019 million employed above the 2018 average
promised 2 by 2022; fact 1 (48%). Average employment in 2022 was 0.76 million above 2018 (22.03 million vs 21.27 million) against a 1.6 million target; the 1.6 million gain was reached by 2024, after the plan's term.
DANE, Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), anexo mercado laboral, total nacional
- South Africa: 5m in 10 years — Government of South Africa (New Growth Path), 2010 thousand more employed than in Q4 2010 (13,132 thousand)
promised 5,000 by 2020; fact 1,892 (38%). By end-2020 employment was 1.9 million above end-2010 (3.3 million above at end-2019, before the pandemic), against 5 million.
Stats SA, Quarterly Labour Force Survey (P0211), IV кв. 2011 и IV кв. 2020
- South Africa: 275k a year — ANC (2019 election manifesto), 2019 thousand employed a year (average, Q2 2019 to Q2 2024)
promised 275 by 2024; fact 68 (25%). From Q2 2019 to Q2 2024 employment rose by 339 thousand — 68 thousand a year against 275 thousand a year.
Stats SA, Quarterly Labour Force Survey (P0211), II кв. 2020 и II кв. 2024
Promises: verbatim from manifestos, interviews and plans. Fact: national employment statistics (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ireland’s CSO, Colombia’s DANE, Stats SA, England’s Department for Education, Eurostat); growth counted from the year of the promise. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The promises count different things: new jobs, growth in employment, apprenticeship starts (England, all ages), the number employed (Spain). The base for Ireland and Colombia is the average of the promise year; the programmes named none. South Africa’s New Growth Path gain is overstated by the 2011 reweighting of the series. Ireland’s gain came with large immigration.
A question for this picture
Whose are the jobs: the one who promised them or the one who governed?