Unemployment promises: 1 of 10 came true on time, Hollande’s, by 0.1 point. Spain expected about 7%, got 21.4%
- Spain: about 7% by 201121.4%
- France, Sarkozy: 5%9.8%
- France, Hollande: below 10.2%10.1%
- France, Macron: 7%7.3%
- Taiwan: 3% by 20163.92%
- Turkey: about 5% by 20239.4%
- South Africa: halve, to 12.6%25.1%
- Colombia: 7.9% by 202211.2%
- Philippines: 3–5% by 20225.4%
- Ireland: 6% by 20216.2%
Unemployment in the deadline year, % of the labour force
1 of 10 came true on time, Hollande’s, by 0.1 point. Spain expected about 7%, got 21.4%.
Closest came Macron, 7.3% against a goal of 7%, and Ireland: 6.2% against 6%, though it had been 5% in 2019. Furthest were Spain and South Africa, whose promises were made before the 2008 crisis.
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Parties and governments name the level they will bring unemployment down to by the end of the term. Here are ten such promises from eight countries beside the deadline year’s outcome.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Spain: about 7% by 2011 — PSOE (2008 manifesto; José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero), 2008 % of labour force unemployed
promised 7 by 2011; fact 21 (306%). In 2011 unemployment was 21.4% against a goal of about 7% (8.2% in 2007); it peaked at 26.1% in 2013 and was 10.5% in 2025.
- South Africa: halve, to 12.6% — ANC (2004 election manifesto), 2004 % of labour force
promised 13 by 2014; fact 25 (199%). The target was half the 2004 level (25.2%), about 12.6%; in 2014 unemployment was 25.1%.
МВФ, World Economic Outlook (по данным Stats SA, QLFS) / IMF WEO (Stats SA QLFS data)
- France, Sarkozy: 5% — Nicolas Sarkozy, 2008 % of labour force, ILO unemployment, annual average
promised 5 by 2012; fact 10 (196%). The pledge was 5% unemployment in 2012; the outcome was 9.8% on average for the year (10.2% in Q4).
INSEE, enquête Emploi; база Макроскопа (МВФ WEO, тот же ряд INSEE)
- Turkey: about 5% by 2023 — Justice and Development Party (AKP), 2015 % of labour force
promised 5 by 2023; fact 9 (188%). 2023 unemployment: 9.4% against about 5%; 2025: 8.3%.
- Colombia: 7.9% by 2022 — Iván Duque's government, 2019 % of labour force, annual
promised 8 by 2022; fact 11 (142%). Unemployment was 11.2% in 2022 against a 7.9% target; 10.0% in 2018 and 16.5% in 2020.
DANE, Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), anexo mercado laboral, total nacional
- Taiwan: 3% by 2016 — Ma Ying-jeou, 2007 % unemployment
promised 3 by 2016; fact 4 (131%). In 2016 unemployment was 3.92%, against a goal of 3% or below; it has not fallen below 3.3% since.
- Philippines: 3–5% by 2022 — Government of the Philippines (Rodrigo Duterte), 2017 % of labour force
promised 5 by 2022; fact 5 (108%). Unemployment was 5.4% in 2022 against a 3–5% target; it fell below 5% in 2023 (4.4%).
МВФ, World Economic Outlook (по данным PSA, Labor Force Survey)
- France, Macron: 7% — Emmanuel Macron, 2017 % of labour force, ILO unemployment, annual average
promised 7 by 2022; fact 7 (104%). The goal was 7% unemployment by the end of the term (2022); the outcome was 7.3% on average in 2022, after 9.4% in 2017.
INSEE, enquête Emploi; база Макроскопа (МВФ WEO, тот же ряд INSEE)
- Ireland: 6% by 2021 — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 % of the labour force
promised 6 by 2021; fact 6 (103%). Unemployment fell to 5.8% in 2018 and 5.0% in 2019, then rose to 6.2% in 2021 during the pandemic; 4.5% in 2022.
- France, Hollande: below 10.2% — François Hollande, 2012 % of labour force, ILO unemployment, Q4, seasonally adjusted
promised 10 by 2013; fact 10 (99%). Unemployment was 10.2% in Q4 2012 and 10.1% in Q4 2013 in today's INSEE series; in 2014 it rose again to 10.5%.
Promises: verbatim from manifestos, speeches and development plans. Fact: national statistics (labour force surveys), Eurostat, IMF; for France, ILO unemployment (INSEE). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Hollande gave no number for “turning the unemployment curve”: here it is unemployment at the end of 2013 below the end of 2012; the 0.1-point gap is within the series’ revisions. South Africa’s target is half the 2004 level, computed on the IMF series. Ireland was below 6% in 2018–2019, the Philippines in 2023. The pandemic fell on the deadlines of Macron, Colombia, the Philippines and Ireland; Turkey changed its method in 2021.
A question for this picture
Which unemployment promises can a government keep by itself, and which does the world economy decide?