GDP growth plans for a deadline year in 5 countries: 2 of 7 came true. Nigeria expected 7% in 2020 and got minus 6.4%
- Nigeria: 7% in 2020−6.37%
- Kenya: 7% in 20224.86%
- Mexico: 5.3% in 20181.97%
- South Africa: 5% in 20190.26%
- South Africa: 2–3% in 20240.54%
- Colombia: 4.5% in 20227.33%
- Nigeria: 3.76% in 20244.07%
GDP growth in the deadline year, %
2 of 7 came true. Nigeria expected 7% in 2020 and got minus 6.4%.
Colombia grew 7.3% in 2022, rebounding from the 2020 slump; Nigeria passed its mark in 2024 only on rebased GDP. In South Africa growth at the deadline was under 1% both times.
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Governments write into development plans and budgets what economic growth will be at the end of the term. Here is such a number for a given year beside what that year brought.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Colombia: 4.5% in 2022 — Iván Duque's government, 2019 % year on year
promised 5 by 2022; fact 7 (163%). GDP grew 7.3% in 2022 against 4.5%; the 2019–2022 average was 3.3%.
- Nigeria: 3.76% in 2024 — Bola Tinubu, 2023 % a year
promised 4 by 2024; fact 4 (108%). On rebased GDP, growth in 2024 was 4.1% against at least 3.76%; the first NBS estimate on the old base was 3.4%.
- Kenya: 7% in 2022 — Government of Kenya (President Uhuru Kenyatta), 2018 % a year
promised 7 by 2022; fact 5 (69%). 2022 growth was 4.9% against the projected 7.0%; only 2021, after the 2020 contraction, exceeded 7%.
- Mexico: 5.3% in 2018 — Mexico's Finance Ministry (SHCP), minister Luis Videgaray, 2013 % a year
promised 5 by 2018; fact 2 (37%). GDP grew 1.97% in 2018 against the 5.3% 'with reforms' forecast; growth did not exceed 2.7% in 2015–2018.
- South Africa: 2–3% in 2024 — Government of South Africa (MTSF 2019-2024), 2019 % a year, real GDP growth
promised 2 by 2024; fact 1 (27%). GDP grew 0.5% in 2024 against the 2% floor of the target; only 2021 (4.9%) and 2022 (2.1%) were above 2%, the rebound after the 2020 slump.
МВФ, World Economic Outlook (по данным Stats SA) / IMF WEO (Stats SA data)
- South Africa: 5% in 2019 — Government of South Africa (MTSF 2014-2019), 2014 % a year, real GDP growth
promised 5 by 2019; fact 0 (5%). GDP grew 0.3% in 2019; in 2014-2019 growth never exceeded 1.6% a year against 5%.
МВФ, World Economic Outlook (по данным Stats SA) / IMF WEO (Stats SA data)
- Nigeria: 7% in 2020 — Government of Nigeria (Muhammadu Buhari), 2017 % a year
promised 7 by 2020; fact −6 (-91%). In 2020 the economy shrank by 6.4% (1.9% on the old NBS base) against a 7% growth target; growth in 2017–2019 was 0.8–2.2% a year.
Targets: verbatim from development plans (Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Colombia), Mexican budget documents and Nigeria’s 2024 budget speech. Fact: IMF World Economic Outlook and national statistics. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The Mexican and Kenyan numbers are ministry forecasts, not promises; Nigeria’s 2024 number is a budget expectation. Nigeria rebased GDP in 2025: on the old base 2024 growth was 3.4%, below the expectation. Four of the seven deadlines fell on the pandemic or the rebound after it.
A question for this picture
Which deadline is fairer for a growth promise: the last year or the average of all years?