Promises to cut public debt in 6 countries: 1 of 7 came true on time. France promised under 60% of GDP, got 91.7%
- France: below 60% by 201291.7%
- Britain: below 84.2% by 202494.5%
- Germany: below 70% by 201764%
- Germany: below 60% by 202264.4%
- Morocco: below 60% by 202169.4%
- South Africa: about 60% by 202373.2%
- Ukraine: up to 60% by 202060.5%
Public debt in the deadline year, % of GDP
1 of 7 came true on time. France promised under 60% of GDP, got 91.7%.
Germany was below 70% of GDP in 2017 and fell to 58.7% in 2019, but after the pandemic debt rose again. Ukraine overshot its ceiling by half a point in 2020: 60.5% of GDP.
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Governments and parties promise the share of the economy they will bring public debt down to. Here are seven such promises from six countries beside debt in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- France: below 60% by 2012 — Nicolas Sarkozy, 2007 % of GDP, general government gross debt (Maastricht)
promised 60 by 2012; fact 92 (153%). The goal was debt below 60% of GDP within five years (by 2012); in 2012 debt was 91.7% of GDP, up from 65.5% in 2007.
Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1 (дефицит и долг по процедуре EDP), выпуск 22.04.2026
- South Africa: about 60% by 2023 — Tito Mboweni, 2019 % of GDP
promised 60 by 2023; fact 73 (122%). Debt was 73.2% of GDP in 2023/24 rather than about 60%, and kept rising (76.0% in 2024/25).
- Morocco: below 60% by 2021 — Saadeddine El Othmani, 2017 % of GDP
promised 60 by 2021; fact 69 (116%). 2021 debt: 69.4% of GDP (IMF) against under 60%; in 2017–2019 it stayed around 60%.
- Britain: below 84.2% by 2024 — Conservative Party (Boris Johnson), 2019 % of GDP
promised 84 by 2024; fact 95 (112%). Net debt was 84.2% of GDP in December 2019 and 94.5% in May 2024, at the end of the Parliament.
- Germany: below 60% by 2022 — CDU/CSU and SPD (Merkel government), 2013 % of GDP
promised 60 by 2022; fact 64 (107%). Debt fell below 60% in 2019 (58.7%), rose after the pandemic, and was 64.4% in 2022, ten years after 2012.
- Ukraine: up to 60% by 2020 — Petro Poroshenko, 2015 % of GDP
promised 60 by 2020; fact 61 (101%). 2020 debt: 60.5% of GDP against the 60% ceiling; 2019: 50.5%, 2021: 48.9%.
- Germany: below 70% by 2017 — CDU/CSU and SPD (Merkel government), 2013 % of GDP
promised 70 by 2017; fact 64 (91%). End-2017 debt was 64.0% of GDP against a target below 70%; it fell below 70% already in 2016 (68.3%).
Promises: verbatim from Germany’s coalition agreement, manifestos, a Ukrainian decree, the French president’s mission letter and South Africa’s budget speech. Fact: Eurostat, IMF, the UK Office for National Statistics. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The debt measures differ: Britain’s is public sector net debt, the others gross; Morocco’s is central government debt. South Africa’s number is the minister’s forecast, not a promise. The 2020 pandemic fell on the deadlines of five of the seven promises.
A question for this picture
Why do promises to cut debt so often meet a crisis before the deadline?