1. EconomySouth Africa

   South Africa: in July 2015 the South African Reserve Bank expected GDP growth of 2.1% for 2016; the outcome was 0.4%

   Forecasts of 49 releases (2015–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 11 times, below 38; typical error −0.40 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in January 2020: 1.6% expected for 2021, the outcome was 4.7%. The largest over-forecast in March 2019: 1.8% expected for 2020, the outcome was −6.0%.

   Source: Central banks: published forecasts; actual: official statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• South Africa now has more people than Italy
• South Africa: in 2020–2023 net migration was higher than all 12 UN projections assumed
• Life expectancy goals: 4 of 7 came true on time. Russia expected 75 years by 2020 and got 71.6
• Promises to cut public debt in 6 countries: 1 of 7 came true on time. France promised under 60% of GDP, got 91.7%
• GDP growth plans for a deadline year in 5 countries: 2 of 7 came true. Nigeria expected 7% in 2020 and got minus 6.4%
• Jobs promises in 6 countries: from 25% to 259% of the promised number. 1 of 9 came true on time

All findings →