1. ForecastsSouth Africa

   South Africa: all 12 UN projections since 1998 expected fewer people than there are

   The UN's 1998 projection expected 45.4M for 2023; the outcome was 63.2M (+39%). The latest checked one: the UN's 2022 projection expected 60.4M for 2023; the outcome was 63.2M (+5%). "Outcome" here is the UN's own current estimate, not registration data.

   Source: UN World Population Prospects 1998–2024; national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• South Africa now has more people than Italy
• South Africa: in 2020–2023 net migration was higher than all 12 UN projections assumed
• Life expectancy goals: 4 of 7 came true on time. Russia expected 75 years by 2020 and got 71.6
• Promises to cut public debt in 6 countries: 1 of 7 came true on time. France promised under 60% of GDP, got 91.7%
• GDP growth plans for a deadline year in 5 countries: 2 of 7 came true. Nigeria expected 7% in 2020 and got minus 6.4%
• Jobs promises in 6 countries: from 25% to 259% of the promised number. 1 of 9 came true on time

All findings →