Luxembourg: 10 years in a row, the budget better than the European Commission’s forecast
Luxembourg: budget balance, 2010–2019
2010–2019: every year both next-year forecasts (spring and autumn) missed the same way, by 2.3% of GDP on average.
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Twice a year, in spring and autumn, the European Commission forecasts every EU country for this year and the next. Here: the next-year forecasts against the outcome in the latest data.
By target year: blue, the last forecast for that year; orange, the outcome. The shading is the error; all these years it stays on one side.
- April 2009 forecast for 2010
−2.8% → −0.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2009 forecast for 2010
−4.2% → −0.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2010 forecast for 2011
−3.9% → +0.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2010 forecast for 2011
−1.3% → +0.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2011 forecast for 2012
−1.1% → +0.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2011 forecast for 2012
−1.1% → +0.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2012 forecast for 2013
−2.2% → +0.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2012 forecast for 2013
−1.7% → +0.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2013 forecast for 2014
−1.3% → +1.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2013 forecast for 2014
−0.4% → +1.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2013 forecast for 2014
−1.0% → +1.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2014 forecast for 2015
−2.4% → +1.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2014 forecast for 2015
−1.4% → +1.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2014 forecast for 2015
−0.4% → +1.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2015 forecast for 2016
+0.1% → +1.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2015 forecast for 2016
+0.3% → +1.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2015 forecast for 2016
+0.5% → +1.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2016 forecast for 2017
+0.5% → +1.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2016 forecast for 2017
+0.1% → +1.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2016 forecast for 2017
0.0% → +1.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2017 forecast for 2018
+0.3% → +3.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2017 forecast for 2018
+0.3% → +3.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2017 forecast for 2018
+0.3% → +3.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2018 forecast for 2019
+0.7% → +2.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2018 forecast for 2019
+1.2% → +2.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
A year counts when every forecast of it made a year earlier missed the same way by more than 0.05; two editions for one year are one check. Years with a known outcome: 25. Ten selected long runs are shown. Error signs can be dependent; countries, variables and windows were searched. The probability of such a run arising by chance has not been estimated here. Outcome: AMECO, spring 2026.
Fiscal forecasts assume announced policy; new laws, crises and statistical revisions (new accounting rules) count as “error”. A run of errors with the same sign can reflect shared assumptions, shocks or data revisions; this selection does not separate them or rule out chance.
A question for this picture
What explains the run of errors: assumptions, shared shocks or data revisions?