2022: the IMF expected inflation above 5% in 43 countries. It happened in 149
inflation in 2022, IMF forecast of April 2021
Prices outran the April 2021 forecast in 178 of 189 countries. It goes the other way too: in 2015 inflation came in below the forecast in 140 of 186.
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Inflation is how much consumer prices rose over a year on average. Every April the IMF forecasts the next year for all countries; here is how many countries it expected to see high inflation and how many did.
By year: blue, the number of countries where the April IMF forecast a year earlier expected inflation above 5%; orange, the number where it turned out above 5% (latest data).
- Countries forecast above 5% for 2022 (April 2021)
43 of 189
- Countries above 5% in 2022
149 of 189
- Inflation in 2022 above the forecast
178 of 189
- Inflation in 2015 below the forecast (April 2014)
140 of 186
Inflation: the annual average rise in consumer prices, World Economic Outlook. Forecast: the April edition of the year before; outcome: April 2026. Countries with both; years with at least 100 such countries.
The 5% threshold marks “noticeable” inflation; another threshold changes the numbers but not the picture. An error shared by many countries at once points to an event outside the assumptions (the pandemic, energy and food prices), not to each country separately.
A question for this picture
Why do forecasts err the same way in almost every country at once?