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  1. ForecastsLatvia

    Latvia: in April 2008 the European Commission expected growth of +2.5% for 2009. The outcome: −16.0%

    +2.5%expected in April 2008
    −16.0%outcome

    Latvia: real GDP growth, %, 2009

    −10020072010

    Reality missed the forecast by 19 percentage points in a year. The forecast came close only in the last editions, with the year under way.

    Source: HM Treasury and the OBR (OBR historical forecasts database), European Commission (forecasts and AMECO); actual: OBR, ONS, AMECOOpen on the chart →
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    In spring and autumn the European Commission forecasts every EU country for this year and the next.

    Across: when each forecast came out. Blue: the forecasts for 2009 in each edition; orange: the outcome. The shading is the error.

    The largest misses of a next-year forecast (without the pandemic years 2020–2021); for borrowing, the forecast made one or two years before the fiscal year with the largest overshoot in pounds. Outcome: latest: AMECO spring 2026 (2026-05-21).

    The card does not say the forecast was worse than others: in 2008–09 almost everyone missed the same way. It shows how far reality can move from an official expectation in a single year.

    A question for this picture

    Could this have been seen a year ahead, and what should one have done with the forecast?

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