Latvia in 2012 planned 28,000 births a year by 2020. There were 17,552, fewer than in 2011
Saeima and Government of Latvia (National Development Plan 2014–2020)20 December 2012 · Latvia's National Development Plan 2014–2020 (NAP2020), family support targets
«ensure that every year more children are born than in the previous year … Number of newborns: 18,825 (2011) → 23,000 in 2014 → 27,000 in 2017 → 28,000 in 2020 (in brackets, the Cross-Sectoral Coordination Centre forecast: 21,300, 25,300, 24,000)»
17,552 children were born in Latvia in 2020 against a target of 28,000 — fewer than in the 2011 baseline (18,825); the plan-period peak was 21,979 in 2015.
The plan expected a rise every year: 23,000 births in 2014, 27,000 in 2017. The most in the period was 21,979 in 2015; after that births fell.
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Latvia’s national development plan for 2014–2020 had a goal: more children born every year than the year before. Here the goal is beside how many were born.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Saeima and Government of Latvia (National Development Plan 2014–2020), Latvia's National Development Plan 2014–2020 (NAP2020), family support targets quote
«panākt, ka katru gadu dzimst vairāk bērnu nekā iepriekšējā gadā … Jaundzimušo bērnu skaits | 18 825 (2011) | 23 000 (21 300)* | 27 000 (25 300)* | 28 000 (24 000)*» — ensure that every year more children are born than in the previous year … Number of newborns: 18,825 (2011) → 23,000 in 2014 → 27,000 in 2017 → 28,000 in 2020 (in brackets, the Cross-Sectoral Coordination Centre forecast: 21,300, 25,300, 24,000)
Likumi.lv, Nacionālais attīstības plāns 2014.–2020. gadam (Saeimas paziņojums, 20.12.2012)
- What happened did not come true
17,552 children were born in Latvia in 2020 against a target of 28,000 — fewer than in the 2011 baseline (18,825); the plan-period peak was 21,979 in 2015.
Goal: Latvia’s National Development Plan 2014–2020, approved by the Saeima on 20 December 2012, items 255–257 (likumi.lv). Fact: Eurostat, live births (demo_gind). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The goal is a «desired scenario»; beside it the plan gave the Cross-Sectoral Coordination Centre forecast of 24,000 by 2020, which was missed too. Latvia’s population was shrinking in those years, partly through emigration, and there were fewer women of the ages when most births happen.
A question for this picture
Can the number of births rise when there are fewer mothers every year?