Goals to raise fertility: 1 of 7 came true. Lithuania expected 1.76 children per woman by 2023 and got 1.18
- Russia: 1.7 by 20161.76
- Turkey: 2.1 by 20182
- Turkey: 2.15 by 20231.52
- Estonia: 1.77 by 20201.58
- Lithuania: 1.72 by 20191.43
- Lithuania: 1.76 by 20231.18
- Latvia: 1.72 by 20241.24
Children per woman in the deadline year
1 of 7 came true. Lithuania expected 1.76 children per woman by 2023 and got 1.18.
Only the first goal of Russia’s 2007 concept came true. In Lithuania, Latvia and Turkey fertility fell almost every year after the plans were adopted.
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Governments of low-fertility countries set goals to raise it. Here are seven such goals from five countries beside what came out in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Russia: 1.7 by 2016 — President of Russia (Decree No. 1351), 2007 children per woman
promised 2 by 2016; fact 2 (104%). The 2016 TFR was 1.762, 1.35 times the 2006 level of 1.305; the target was 1.697.
- Turkey: 2.1 by 2018 — Government of Turkey (Ministry of Development), 2013 children per woman
promised 2 by 2018; fact 2 (95%). The TFR was 2.00 in 2018 against the planned 2.10; instead of rising gradually it fell from 2.16 in 2015.
TÜİK, Doğum İstatistikleri 2025 (21.05.2026), «Temel doğurganlık göstergeleri, 2001-2025»
- Estonia: 1.77 by 2020 — Estonian Ministry of Social Affairs (Children and Families Development Plan 2012–2020), 2011 children per woman (total fertility rate)
promised 2 by 2020; fact 2 (89%). Estonia's total fertility rate was 1.58 in 2020 against a target of 1.77; the closest was 1.67 in 2018. The interim 2015 target of 1.71 was also missed (1.58).
- Lithuania: 1.72 by 2019 — Seimas of Lithuania, 2018 children per woman
promised 2 by 2019; fact 1 (83%). 2019: 1.43 children per woman against 1.72; fertility fell every year after 2017.
- Latvia: 1.72 by 2024 — Saeima and Government of Latvia (National Development Plan 2021–2027), 2020 children per woman (total fertility rate)
promised 2 by 2024; fact 1 (72%). Latvia's total fertility rate was 1.24 in 2024 against a target of 1.72 — below the 2018 baseline (1.6); after the plan was adopted it fell almost every year.
- Turkey: 2.15 by 2023 — Government of Turkey (Presidency of Strategy and Budget), 2019 children per woman
promised 2 by 2023; fact 2 (71%). The TFR was 1.52 in 2023 against a target of 2.15 and fell in every year of the plan.
TÜİK, Doğum İstatistikleri 2025 (21.05.2026), «Temel doğurganlık göstergeleri, 2001-2025»
- Lithuania: 1.76 by 2023 — Seimas of Lithuania (Demography, Migration and Integration Policy Strategy 2018–2030), 2018 children per woman (total fertility rate)
promised 2 by 2023; fact 1 (67%). Lithuania's total fertility rate was 1.18 in 2023 against a target of 1.76; it fell every year after the strategy was adopted. The interim 2019 target of 1.72 was also missed (1.43).
Goals: verbatim from Russia’s demographic policy concept, Turkey’s and Estonia’s development plans, Lithuania’s strategy and Latvia’s national development plan. Fact: national statistics and Eurostat; each row links its source on the back. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Russia’s goal is set as a rise of 1.3 times over 2006, converted here into a number. Lithuania’s strategy used baseline figures from before the revision by the 2021 census. Turkey’s goals are replacement level and slightly above.
A question for this picture
Is there a country where a goal to raise fertility came true for long?