Latvia’s National Alliance in 2018: more citizens will return than leave. In 2022, 3,243 more left than arrived
National Alliance (All for Latvia! – For Fatherland and Freedom/LNNK)14 September 2018 · manifesto for the Saeima election of 6 October 2018
«Our goals for the 13th Saeima: [...] We will ensure that more citizens return to Latvia than leave.»
In 2022, 3,243 more Latvian citizens left than arrived; arrivals exceeded departures only in 2023 (+858), and in 2024 the balance was −149 again.
Fact: Eurostat, migr_imm1ctz и migr_emi1ctz (geo=LV, citizen=NAT)
The outflow shrank throughout the term: 9,842 people in 2017, 2,492 in 2021. Arrivals first came out ahead in 2023, by 858; in 2024 they were behind again.
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After the 2008 crisis many people left Latvia. The National Alliance, which later joined the government, promised in the election that within four years more citizens would return than leave. Here is the difference between Latvian citizens arriving and leaving each year.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- National Alliance (All for Latvia! – For Fatherland and Freedom/LNNK), manifesto for the Saeima election of 6 October 2018 quote
«Mūsu mērķi 13. Saeimai: [...] Panāksim, ka Latvijā atgriežas vairāk pilsoņu, nekā aizbrauc.» — Our goals for the 13th Saeima: [...] We will ensure that more citizens return to Latvia than leave.
- What happened late
In 2022, 3,243 more Latvian citizens left than arrived; arrivals exceeded departures only in 2023 (+858), and in 2024 the balance was −149 again.
Quote: the party’s election programme, published by the Central Election Commission in Latvijas Vēstnesis on 14 September 2018. Fact: Eurostat, immigration and emigration of the country’s citizens (migr_imm1ctz, migr_emi1ctz). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
All arriving and leaving citizens are compared, not only returning emigrants. The deadline in the quote is «for this Saeima», that is, until the 2022 election. The party was in the Kariņš government from 2019 to 2022.
A question for this picture
Is the outflow shrinking because people return, or because fewer are left who would go?