Iceland: one IMF forecast for 2024, three misses — lower growth, higher prices, a bigger deficit
In October 2023 the IMF expected the economy to grow by 1.7% in 2024, prices to rise by 4.5% and the budget to show a deficit of 1.2% of GDP. The outcome: a 1.3% contraction, prices up 5.9%, a deficit of 3.7% of GDP.
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One forecast edition for one target year missed in three directions at once: weaker real growth, faster price growth and a worse budget balance.
A bar is how far the outcome landed from the forecast, in percentage points: left is below the forecast, right is above. Growth and the budget balance came out below it, price growth above.
- Real GDP growth % per year
Forecast 1.733 → outcome −1.283 (2024)
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2023 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- Inflation % per year, average
Forecast 4.514 → outcome 5.859 (2024)
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2023 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- Government budget balance % of GDP
Forecast −1.233 → outcome −3.71 (2024)
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2023 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
Latest target year within 2018–2025 shared by all three measures and the latest prior-year WEO edition for them. Each miss is at least one percentage point. Earlier years are not searched for a stronger headline.
The outcome is the newest WEO edition’s estimate and can still be revised; part of a miss can be such a revision. One year does not show the direction of every IMF forecast.
A question for this picture
What does a plan built on these three assumptions miss when all three fail together?