Chain · 6 cards
Which tech deadlines come true?
Deadlines from shareholder letters, press releases and posts, next to what happened. A chain from things already being made to things nobody has done yet.
The cards, in order
- Tesla: its yearly delivery guidance came true almost exactly; its longer-range goals about halfway
Near-term goals come true. What about Musk’s other company?
- Musk in March 2022: in 18 months there will be over 4,200 Starlink satellites in orbit. There were 4,823
And something nobody had done yet — a driverless car?
- Tesla’s self-driving car: of 8 dates Musk gave, 1 came true on time, paid rides in Austin in 2025
Is it only Tesla that runs late?
- Driverless taxis: of 5 promised dates, 1 came true on time; the first services were 1 to 2 years late
And first flights of new rockets?
- A new rocket’s first launch: of 7 promised dates none came true on time; the delays ran from one to five years
And in science — fusion?
- Fusion: of 6 promised milestones none came on time; 4 have not been reached
Repeating comes on time; doing it first runs late
Tesla’s yearly deliveries came to 90% to 102% of the promise, and 18 months later there were 4,823 Starlink satellites against the 4,200 promised. But of 8 dates for Tesla’s driverless car, 1 came true on time, a new rocket’s first launch ran up to 5 years late, and fusion ignition came 10.2 years after its deadline. In these sets what is done for the first time runs late, across companies and countries.