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  1. Science and spaceUnited States, Russia and Japan

    A new rocket’s first launch: of 7 promised dates none came true on time; the delays ran from one to five years

    • Bezos: New Glenn by 20195 years late
    • Musk: Falcon Heavy by 20134.1 years late
    • Europe: Ariane 6 by 20203.5 years late
    • Angara from Vostochny, 20203.3 years late
    • Japan: H3 by 20201.9 years late
    • Relativity Terran 1 by 20211.2 years late
    • Rocket Lab: Neutron by 2024not yet
    Did it come true?Came true: 0 of 7

    Of 7 promised dates none came true on time; the delays ran from one to five years.

    Bezos: New Glenn by 20195 years lateMusk: Falcon Heavy by 20134.1 years lateEurope: Ariane 6 by 20203.5 years lateAngara from Vostochny, 20203.3 years lateJapan: H3 by 20201.9 years lateRelativity Terran 1 by 20211.2 years lateRocket Lab: Neutron by 2024not yet

    Bezos’s rocket kept people waiting longest: it flew 5 years after the deadline. Falcon Heavy was 4.1 years late, Ariane 6 3.5. Rocket Lab’s rocket had not flown by October 2026.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    A new rocket means years of design and testing, and the first launch date is named well ahead. Here are seven rockets, their promised first launch and how many years past the deadline it came: state agencies and private companies alike.

    A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.

    Promises: verbatim from the primary sources, founders’ talks, press releases, decisions of ESA, Roscosmos and Japan’s government. The date of the event is from a primary source, linked on the back for each row. The delay is counted from the end of the promised period: «by 2020» from the end of 2020, «in October» from the end of October. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    A first launch need not succeed: Japan’s new-generation rocket did not reach orbit in 2023, and Relativity’s printed rocket was retired after its only launch. Angara had flown before from Plesetsk; here it is the promised first launch from Vostochny.

    A question for this picture

    A delay of several years is normal for a new rocket: why name a date at all?

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