Tesla’s self-driving car: of 8 dates Musk gave, 1 came true on time, paid rides in Austin in 2025
Elon Musksaid it 8 times: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
- 2017
Still on for end of year. Just software limited.
- 2018
Probably technically able to do so in about a year.
- 2019
…you do not need to pay attention in our opinion by the end of next year
- 2021
the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year
- 2022
I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year
- 2023
we'll be better than human by the end of this year
- 2024
driverless Teslas doing paid rides next year
- 2025
available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year
Of 8 dates Musk gave, 1 came true on time, paid rides in Austin in 2025. Rides with no Tesla employee in the car began in Austin in January 2026: 5, 4, 3 and 2 years after those deadlines.
From 2019 Musk named the following year each year. Rides with no Tesla employee in the car began in Austin in January 2026: 5, 4, 3 and 2 years after those deadlines. The driverless drive across the country promised for 2017 never took place.
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Since 2016 Elon Musk has said almost every year that Tesla cars are about to drive themselves. Here are eight such promises by the year they were made, and how many years past each deadline passed before the event.
One promise said many times: under each year, the words verbatim. Answer Yes or No (did it come true on time at least half the times?), or just open the answer. On the timeline the small dark dots are when it was said, the empty rings the deadlines named, the ring in the stamp’s colour when it happened.
- 2017: across the country — Elon Musk, 2017 years past the deadline
promised by 2017; not happened by 11 October 2026. In February 2018 the shareholder letter still called the drive "upcoming"; the company never reported it done.
- 2018: car delivers itself — Elon Musk, 2018 years past the deadline
promised by 2019; happened June 2025 (5.4 years late). Tesla delivered the first car to a buyer with no driver in June 2025, 5.4 years after the deadline.
- 2019: robotaxi by 2020 — Elon Musk, 2019 years past the deadline
promised by 2020; happened January 2026 (5 years late). The first Robotaxi rides with no Tesla employee in the car began in Austin in January 2026, 5.0 years after the deadline.
- 2021: self-driving by 2021 — Elon Musk, 2021 years past the deadline
promised by 2021; happened January 2026 (4 years late). The first rides with no human supervision began in January 2026, 4.0 years after the deadline.
- 2022: self-driving by 2022 — Elon Musk, 2022 years past the deadline
promised by 2022; happened January 2026 (3 years late). The first rides with no human supervision began in January 2026, 3.0 years after the deadline.
- 2023: better than human — Elon Musk, 2023 years past the deadline
promised by 2023; happened January 2026 (2 years late). The first rides with no human supervision began in January 2026, 2.0 years after the deadline.
- 2025: owners’ cars by 2025 — Elon Musk, 2025 years past the deadline
promised by 2025; not happened by 11 October 2026. In 2026 FSD in customer cars still requires supervision; only Robotaxi service cars run unsupervised.
- 2024: paid rides by 2025 — Elon Musk, 2024 years past the deadline
promised by 2025; happened June 2025 (on time). Paid Robotaxi rides began in Austin in June 2025: no one at the wheel, a Tesla employee in the passenger seat.
Promises: verbatim from the primary sources, Tesla earnings calls, shareholder letters, Elon Musk’s talks and posts. The date of the event is from a primary source, linked on the back for each row. The delay is counted from the end of the promised period: «by 2020» from the end of 2020, «in October» from the end of October. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The event dates are this project’s choice: for «unsupervised» driving, the first Robotaxi rides in Austin with no Tesla employee in the car, January 2026; for paid rides, the service launch in Austin in June 2025, then with an employee in the passenger seat. Owners’ cars still needed a supervising driver in October 2026.
A question for this picture
A deadline moved by a year every year: is it a forecast or a way of talking about a goal?