1. Forecasts

   Where there was war, the UN missed more often on births and the starting population than on migration

   UN projections for 2023 in countries at war during the projection years: births were the main cause of the miss in 40% of cases, the population at the start in 30%, migration in only 21%. Where there was no war, migration was the main cause in 41%. A case is one country in one projection.

   Source: UN World Population Prospects 1998–2024; national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• The IMF foresaw 28 of 537 economic downturns around the world a year ahead
• 2022: the IMF expected inflation above 5% in 43 countries. It happened in 149
• China: all 12 UN projections since 1998 expected more births
• Before 7 of 8 US recessions, next-quarter GDP decline odds were below 25%
• US: in 2001 a $5.6T budget surplus was projected for 10 years. The outcome: a $6.1T deficit
• The European Commission expected low inflation for 2022. In all 27 EU countries it came in higher

All findings →