The European Commission expected low inflation for 2022. In all 27 EU countries it came in higher
inflation in EU countries in 2022
Two forecasts per country, spring and autumn 2021: the average was 2.1%, the outcome 10.7%. Five largest gaps from each country’s mean forecast are shown.
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Inflation is the annual rise in consumer prices (the EU harmonised index). In spring and autumn 2021 the Commission forecast 2022 for every EU country (54 forecasts); a country counts when inflation exceeded both.
Bars: by how many percentage points inflation in 2022 exceeded the forecast (the average of the two forecasts), for the countries with the largest miss.
- Estonia forecasts spring / autumn 2021 → outcome 2022
2.2% / 3.9% → 19.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- Lithuania forecasts spring / autumn 2021 → outcome 2022
1.9% / 3.1% → 18.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- Latvia forecasts spring / autumn 2021 → outcome 2022
2.0% / 3.6% → 17.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- Czechia forecasts spring / autumn 2021 → outcome 2022
2.2% / 3.4% → 14.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- Hungary forecasts spring / autumn 2021 → outcome 2022
3.2% / 4.8% → 15.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- Bulgaria forecasts spring / autumn 2021 → outcome 2022
2.0% / 2.9% → 13.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- Netherlands forecasts spring / autumn 2021 → outcome 2022
1.4% / 2.2% → 11.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
Next-year forecasts of the spring and autumn 2021 editions (AMECO); outcome: AMECO, spring 2026.
Energy prices after February 2022 were beyond the 2021 forecasts; yet inflation had started rising in 2021. It goes the other way too: in 2012–2019 forecasts for Cyprus, Denmark and Finland came in above the outcome more than 20 times in a row.
A question for this picture
Why did no forecast allow for high inflation?