1. Forecasts

   Where few children were already being born, the UN expected fertility to recover — and was wrong

   158 countries. Where women had fewer than 2.1 children in 2000, UN projections of 1998–2022 typically overestimated fertility by 8%; where they had 3 or more, the typical miss was +1%. Errors go both ways, but not evenly.

   Source: UN World Population Prospects 1998–2024; national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• The IMF foresaw 28 of 537 economic downturns around the world a year ahead
• 2022: the IMF expected inflation above 5% in 43 countries. It happened in 149
• China: all 12 UN projections since 1998 expected more births
• Before 7 of 8 US recessions, next-quarter GDP decline odds were below 25%
• US: in 2001 a $5.6T budget surplus was projected for 10 years. The outcome: a $6.1T deficit
• The European Commission expected low inflation for 2022. In all 27 EU countries it came in higher

All findings →