Maths at age 15 fell significantly from 2018 to 2022 in 21 of 33 countries where schools were closed under 40 weeks, and in 7 of 17 where closed over 60 weeks
Longer without normal school did not mean more frequent falls. Iceland: 6 weeks of closed schools, none nationwide; score −36.3. Saudi Arabia: 68 weeks of closed schools, 50 nationwide; score +15.5.
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UNESCO recorded every day whether schools in each country were open. Here countries that sat PISA in 2018 and 2022 are grouped by how many weeks their schools were fully or partly closed. Scores fell even where schools barely closed.
Each bar: the share of countries in the group where the maths mean at age 15 fell beyond the measurement error from 2018 to 2022. Weeks: 16 February 2020 to 30 April 2022 with schools closed nationwide or partly; holidays not counted.
- Under 40 weeks: maths worse / countries countries
21 / 33
- 40–60 weeks: maths worse / countries countries
10 / 15
- Over 60 weeks: maths worse / countries countries
7 / 17
- Iceland: weeks of closed schools; maths 2018→2022 weeks; points
6.1; −36.3
- Saudi Arabia: weeks of closed schools; maths 2018→2022 weeks; points
68.4; +15.5
OECD PISA 2022, maths trend table (2018→2022). UNESCO, Duration of school closures by country (2022): days with the status "closed due to COVID-19" or "partially open", divided by 7. Guatemala, Cambodia and Paraguay are left out: their "2018" is the 2017 PISA for Development test.
"Partly" ranges from one closed region to closed upper grades; it is not the share of pupils at home. Counting only nationwide closure gives the same picture: under 10 weeks, a fall in 10 of 16 countries; over 40 weeks, in 4 of 7. Longer closures were mostly in countries with lower scores and incomes; allowing for the 2018 score, the link between weeks and change disappears. In some countries the 2022 test covered under 80% of 15-year-olds.
A question for this picture
Stricter restrictions, bigger fall?