US: 13-year-olds read in 2023 at the level of 1971, after falling 7 points from the 2012 peak
Maths over the same years fell from 285 to 271: below every year since 1990, but above 1978. The 2020→2023 step (−9) is twice any step before 2012.
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Since the early 1970s the long-term trend NAEP has given American 13-year-olds tasks of the same design. For forty years scores rose slowly, peaked in 2012, and by 2023 reading was back at its 1971 level.
Lines: the mean score of 13-year-olds in maths (since 1978) and reading (since 1971), scale 0–500. The grey band marks tests after the pandemic began.
- US: reading, age 13 points
1971: 255.2; 1975: 255.9; 1980: 258.5; 1984: 257.1; 1988: 257.5; 1990: 256.8; 1992: 259.8; 1994: 257.9; 1996: 257.9; 1999: 259.4; 2004: 256.7; 2008: 259.7; 2012: 262.8; 2020: 260.1; 2023: 255.7
NCES: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) · public domain
- US: maths, age 13 points
1978: 264.1; 1982: 268.6; 1986: 269; 1990: 270.4; 1992: 273.1; 1994: 274.3; 1996: 274.3; 1999: 275.8; 2004: 278.8; 2008: 281.5; 2012: 285; 2020: 279.7; 2023: 270.7
NCES: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) · public domain
- US: age 9, reading and maths 2012 → 2020 → 2022 points
220.8 → 219.7 → 214.6; 244 → 241.4 → 233.9
NCES: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) · public domain
NCES, long-term trend NAEP: means and NCES significance marks (against the previous and the first test). Reading: 1971 255.2, 2012 262.8, 2023 255.7 (not different from 1971). Maths: 1978 264.1, 2012 285, 2023 270.7.
There were no tests between 2012 and 2020, so when the decline began is unknown. The 2020 test of 13-year-olds was taken in autumn 2019, before the pandemic, and was already below 2012. Nine-year-olds show no significant change over 2012–2020 (reading 221 → 220, maths 244 → 241), then both subjects fell in 2022. The test does not show the cause.
A question for this picture
Who fell further behind, weak pupils or strong ones?