US: since 2013 the weakest 10% of fourth-graders lost 15 points in reading; the strongest 10% did not change
The slide began before the pandemic: in 2013–2019 the bottom 10% lost significantly in 10 of 10 NAEP tests, the top 10% in none. In 2019–2022 the strong fell too, in 3 of 4 tests.
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The US national test (NAEP) publishes not only the average but scores at different points: the 10th percentile is a pupil outscored by 90% of peers, the 90th one who beats 90%. Since 2013 the lower scores in reading and maths fell while the upper ones held. The average hid a widening gap.
Lines: how far the score at the 10th and 90th percentile in grade 4 reading is above or below 2013. The grey band marks the pandemic years, 2019–2022.
- US: reading, grade 4, bottom 10% points
2013: 173.5; 2015: 173.9; 2017: 170.9; 2019: 168.3; 2022: 162.2; 2024: 158.3
NCES: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) · public domain
- US: reading, grade 4, top 10% points
2013: 265.3; 2015: 266; 2017: 266.7; 2019: 266.1; 2022: 265.8; 2024: 264.8
NCES: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) · public domain
- US: NAEP series where the bottom 10% fell significantly before the pandemic / the top 10% series
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NCES: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) · public domain
NCES, NAEP Data Service: main NAEP (grades 4, 8 and 12, 2013→2019) and long-term trend NAEP (ages 9 and 13, 2012→2020), 10 series. «Lost significantly»: NCES marks at least one step significantly lower and none higher. Grade 4 reading: bottom 10% 174 → 174 → 171 → 168 → 162 → 158, top 10% 265 → 266 → 267 → 266 → 266 → 265 (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2024).
It was not always so: in 2003–2013 the bottom 10% gained in 4 of 4 grade 4 and 8 series. In 2022–2024 the top 10% in maths rose again, the bottom did not. The test does not say why the weak fell behind; coinciding with the spread of smartphones is not proof.
A question for this picture
How has reading among American 13-year-olds changed since 1971?