Maths at age 15 fell significantly after 2018 in 16 of 35 countries with strict COVID-19 restrictions and in 22 of 34 with mild ones
Stricter restrictions did not mean more frequent falls. Mean change: −7.7 and −13.9 points. The timing matches: of these 69 countries the score fell in 38.
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The fall in scores after 2018 is often blamed on pandemic school closures. Here countries are split in half by how strict their 2020–2021 measures were. The fall was nearly everywhere, but not more frequent where measures were strict.
Each bar: the share of countries where the maths mean at age 15 fell beyond the measurement error from 2018 to 2022. Strict: a mean 2020–2021 stringency index at or above the median (54 of 100).
- Strict countries: maths worse / total countries
16 / 35
- Mild countries: maths worse / total countries
22 / 34
- Median stringency index 2020–2021 of 100
54.3
OECD PISA 2022, maths trend table (2018→2022). Oxford tracker: stringency index 0–100, mean of 2020 and 2021; school closures are one of its nine measures.
The stringency index is not weeks of school closure: it also counts bans on gatherings and border controls. Strict and mild countries differ in wealth and schools too. The timing matches the pandemic, the strength of measures does not; the card names no cause.
A question for this picture
Did maths fall as often from 2012 to 2018?