1. ForecastsKazakhstan

   Kazakhstan: older UN projections expected too little, the 2022 one too much

   Projections from 1998 to 2019 missed one way. The UN's 1998 projection expected 261k births a year on average for 2020–2025; the outcome was 401k (+54%). The UN's 2022 projection expected 385k births for 2025; the outcome was 335k (−13%).

   Source: UN World Population Prospects 1998–2024; national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• India and Kazakhstan: almost equal fertility in 2010 (2.60 and 2.61 children per woman); by 2022, 1.99 and 3.05
• Israel: 15-year-olds with problems from social media rose from 5% to 16%, and maths did not fall; in Norway there are fewer, and maths fell 33 points
• Income per head and export promises in 8 countries: from 43% to 148% of the number. 2 of 9 came true
• Goals to cut infant mortality: 4 of 10 came true on time. Turkey promised below 5 per 1,000 by 2023 and had 9.8
• Goals to lengthen lives: 7 of 13 came true on time. Sri Lanka expected 80 years by 2016 and had 76.1
• Kazakhstan: women outlive men by 8.3 years, 1.5 times the world average

All findings →