Income per head and export promises in 8 countries: from 43% to 148% of the number. 2 of 9 came true
- Taiwan: $30k per head77%
- Philippines: $5,000 per head80%
- Bangladesh: $1,500 per head148%
- Russia: 1.5 times per head79%
- Ukraine: $16k per head97%
- Turkey: $500bn exports51%
- Russia: $100bn services43%
- Japan: ¥1trn of food91%
- Kazakhstan: food +40%145%
Fact at the deadline, % of the promised number
From 43% to 148% of the number. 2 of 9 came true.
Bangladesh overshot on income per head and Kazakhstan on food exports; Ukraine fell 3% short. Taiwan and Japan reached their numbers after the deadline, in 2021.
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Leaders and parties promise what income per person will be or how much the country will sell abroad. Here are nine such promises from eight countries beside the outcome at the deadline.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Bangladesh: $1,500 per head — Sheikh Hasina, 2013 US dollars per capita, fiscal year
promised 1,500 by 2021; fact 2,227 (148%). In fiscal 2020/21 per capita income was 2,227 dollars (old base) against a 1,500 target.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, национальные счета (per capita GNI, старая база 2005/06)
- Kazakhstan: food +40% — Nursultan Nazarbayev, 2017 billion US dollars
promised 3 by 2021; fact 4 (145%). 2021 food exports: about $4.25bn, double 2016 ($2.10bn), against +40% ($2.94bn).
Всемирный банк / ВТО: экспорт товаров (TX.VAL.MRCH.CD.WT) × доля продовольствия (TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN)
- Ukraine: $16k per head — Petro Poroshenko, 2015 current international dollars (PPP) per person
promised 16,000 by 2020; fact 15,541 (97%). 2020 GDP per capita at PPP: $15,541 against $16,000 (97%); 2021: $17,846.
- Japan: ¥1trn of food — Liberal Democratic Party, 2017 100 million yen (oku)
promised 10,000 by 2019; fact 9,121 (91%). 2019 exports were 912.1 billion yen against 1 trillion; 1 trillion was passed in 2021 (1.24 trillion).
Министерство сельского хозяйства, лесного хозяйства и рыболовства Японии, «令和7年（2025年）農林水産物・食品の輸出額»
- Philippines: $5,000 per head — Government of the Philippines (Rodrigo Duterte), 2017 US dollars per person
promised 5,000 by 2022; fact 4,010 (80%). In 2022 GNI per capita (Atlas) was $4,010 against at least $5,000; $4,470 in 2024.
- Russia: 1.5 times per head — Vladimir Putin, 2018 constant 2021 PPP dollars per person
promised 53,356 by 2025; fact 42,358 (79%). By 2025 GDP per capita was 1.19 times the 2017 level (42,358 vs 35,571 PPP dollars) against a 1.5x goal.
Всемирный банк, ВВП на душу населения по ППС (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD)
- Taiwan: $30k per head — Ma Ying-jeou, 2007 GDP per capita, current US dollars
promised 30,000 by 2016; fact 23,071 (77%). In 2016 GDP per capita was $23,071 against $30,000; the threshold was passed in 2021 ($33,239).
- Turkey: $500bn exports — Justice and Development Party (AKP), 2015 billion US dollars
promised 500 by 2023; fact 256 (51%). 2023 goods exports: $255.6bn against $500bn; 2025: $273.4bn.
- Russia: $100bn services — Vladimir Putin, 2018 billion US dollars a year
promised 100 by 2024; fact 43 (43%). 2024 service exports: $43bn against $100bn; the period high was $64.7bn in 2018.
Всемирный банк по данным платёжного баланса Банка России, экспорт услуг (BX.GSR.NFSV.CD)
Promises: verbatim from manifestos, addresses, decrees and development plans. Fact: IMF, World Bank, national statistics and ministries (Turkey, Russia, Japan, Kazakhstan). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The units differ: current dollars, purchasing-power dollars (Ukraine), constant prices (Russia: up 1.19 times against a target of 1.5), yen. Dollar sums depend on exchange rates and world prices: Kazakhstan’s grain exports rose with 2021 prices. Bangladesh’s income estimates were later disputed. Taiwan’s programme said “national income”; here it is GDP per head.
A question for this picture
What says more about people’s lives: income per head in dollars or what it buys?