Goals to cut infant mortality: 4 of 10 came true on time. Turkey promised below 5 per 1,000 by 2023 and had 9.8
- Turkey: below 20 by 201012.1
- Turkey: 7 by 201510.2
- Turkey: 6 by 20199.1
- Turkey: below 5 by 20239.8
- Turkey, plan: 8.5 by 20239.8
- Bangladesh: 15 by 202124.6
- Nigeria: 30 by 201976.3
- Kazakhstan: 7.2 by 20255.85
- Belarus: 3.4 by 20202.34
- China: 17 by 201013.1
Deaths under one per 1,000 births in the deadline year
4 of 10 came true on time. Turkey promised below 5 per 1,000 by 2023 and had 9.8.
Turkey’s ruling party in 2011 named targets for 2015, 2019 and 2023, and none came true. Nigeria expected 30 per 1,000 by 2019; the UN estimate is about 76.
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Infant mortality is how many of every thousand babies born die before their first birthday. Here are ten targets to lower it: election promises of parties in Turkey, Bangladesh and Nigeria and government plans in Turkey, Kazakhstan, Belarus and China.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Nigeria: 30 by 2019 — All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria, 2013 infant deaths per 1,000 live births (UN estimate)
promised 30 by 2019; fact 76 (254%). In 2019 infant mortality in Nigeria was about 76 per 1,000 by the UN estimate, against a target of 30 (3%).
- Turkey: below 5 by 2023 — Justice and Development Party (AKP), 2011 per 1,000 live births (all gestational ages)
promised 5 by 2023; fact 10 (196%). Infant mortality was 9.8 per 1,000 live births in 2023 according to the Turkish Ministry of Health, against a pledge of “below 5”.
- Bangladesh: 15 by 2021 — Awami League (Sheikh Hasina), 2008 infant deaths per 1,000 live births (UN estimate)
promised 15 by 2021; fact 25 (164%). In 2021 infant mortality was about 25 per 1,000 by the UN estimate, against a target of 15.
- Turkey: 6 by 2019 — Justice and Development Party (AKP), 2011 per 1,000 live births
promised 6 by 2019; fact 9 (152%). Infant mortality was 9.1 per 1,000 live births in 2019 according to TÜİK, against a pledge of 6.
- Turkey: 7 by 2015 — Justice and Development Party (AKP), 2011 per 1,000 live births
promised 7 by 2015; fact 10 (146%). Infant mortality was 10.2 per 1,000 live births in 2015 according to TÜİK, against a pledge of 7.
- Turkey, plan: 8.5 by 2023 — Government of Turkey (Presidency of Strategy and Budget), 2019 per 1,000 live births (all gestational ages)
promised 9 by 2023; fact 10 (115%). Infant mortality was 9.8 per 1,000 live births in 2023 according to the Turkish Ministry of Health, against the plan target of 8.5.
- Kazakhstan: 7.2 by 2025 — Government of Kazakhstan, 2021 per 1,000 live births
promised 7 by 2025; fact 6 (81%). Infant mortality was 5.85 per 1,000 live births in 2025 against a target of 7.2.
- China: 17 by 2010 — China's National People's Congress and State Council, 2006 per 1,000 live births
promised 17 by 2010; fact 13 (77%). Infant mortality was 13.1 per 1,000 live births in 2010 against the target of 17.
- Belarus: 3.4 by 2020 — Council of Ministers of Belarus, 2016 per 1,000 live births
promised 3 by 2020; fact 2 (69%). Infant mortality in Belarus was 2.3 per 1,000 live births in 2020 by the UN estimate, below the 3.4 ceiling; Belstat gave 2.4 for 2019.
ООН, World Population Prospects 2024, младенческая смертность (оценки)
- Turkey: below 20 by 2010 — Justice and Development Party (AKP), 2007 per 1,000 live births
promised 20 by 2010; fact 12 (61%). Infant mortality was 12.1 per 1,000 live births in 2010 according to TÜİK, against a pledge of “below 20”.
TÜİK, «Ölüm İstatistikleri, 2010» и «Ölüm İstatistikleri, 2011» (бюллетени, копии в web.archive.org)
Targets: verbatim from party manifestos and government plans. Fact: national statistics or UN estimates; each row links its source on the back. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Countries count differently, so levels of different countries cannot be compared directly. For Turkey in 2023 the Ministry of Health figure is used, for earlier years the Turkish Statistical Institute’s. The data do not show that the plans caused the falls.
A question for this picture
Why did Turkey, where infant mortality fell for years, reach none of its targets after 2010?