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  1. Fertility10 countries

    Goals to lengthen lives: 7 of 13 came true on time. Sri Lanka expected 80 years by 2016 and had 76.1

    • Kenya: 53 by 201060.9
    • Uganda: 60 by 202066.4
    • Rwanda: 66 by 202067
    • India: 70 by 202572.2
    • Russia: over 70 by 201370.6
    • Bangladesh: 72 by 202171.1
    • Kazakhstan, plan: 73 by 202071.2
    • Kazakhstan, party: 73 by 202170.1
    • Kazakhstan, party: 75 by 202576
    • Belarus: 74.6 by 202072.1
    • Belarus: 76.5 by 202574.8
    • Turkey: 77.5 by 201878.6
    • Sri Lanka: 80 by 201676.1

    Life expectancy in the deadline year, years

    Did it come true?Came true: 7 of 13

    7 of 13 came true on time. Sri Lanka expected 80 years by 2016 and had 76.1.

    Kenya: 53 by 201060.9Uganda: 60 by 202066.4Rwanda: 66 by 202067India: 70 by 202572.2Russia: over 70 by 201370.6Bangladesh: 72 by 202171.1Kazakhstan, plan: 73 by 202071.2Kazakhstan, party: 73 by 202170.1Kazakhstan, party: 75 by 202576Belarus: 74.6 by 202072.1Belarus: 76.5 by 202574.8Turkey: 77.5 by 201878.6Sri Lanka: 80 by 201676.1

    Kazakhstan and Bangladesh passed their marks early, but in the deadline year, in the pandemic, were below them. Kenya expected life expectancy to fall to 53 years, and it rose to 60.9.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    Parties and governments promise that people will live longer. Here are thirteen such goals from ten countries beside life expectancy in the deadline year.

    A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.

    Goals: verbatim from the election programmes of parties in Russia, Kazakhstan and Bangladesh and from government programmes and plans. Fact: national statistics or UN estimates; each row links its source on the back. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    Kenya’s 2000 policy expected a fall to 53 years, so its number is more a forecast than a goal. National and UN estimates for one country differ by a year or more. In 2020–2021, in the pandemic, life expectancy fell in many countries, and several goals had their deadline in those years.

    A question for this picture

    A goal passed early, but the figure was lower in the deadline year: did it come true or not?

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