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  1. Forecasts

    EU: in 2009 the economy shrank in 25 countries. A year earlier the European Commission expected it in 5

    25EU countries with a downturn in 2009
    5of them the Commission expected a year ahead

    EU: countries with falling GDP and how many the Commission expected a year ahead

    0102020012025

    2020: a downturn in 25 countries, expected in none; these forecasts did not anticipate the pandemic downturn. And the other way: for 2010 a downturn was expected in 11 countries whose economies grew.

    Source: European Commission: forecasts 2000–2026 (PDF and AMECO), first estimates and AMECO dataOpen on the chart →
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    In spring and autumn the European Commission forecasts the next year’s growth of every EU country. Here: how many downturns that forecast saw coming.

    By year: blue, the number of EU countries whose real GDP fell; orange, how many of them had at least one Commission forecast made a year earlier already showing a fall.

    Forecasts: the Commission’s spring and autumn editions of the year before (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO since 2011); countries: EU members at the time, without the UK. A downturn: growth below −0.05% in AMECO, spring 2026; “expected”: at least one forecast below zero. In 2001–2025: 107 downturns, 21 of them expected a year ahead.

    In 2009 a downturn was expected a year ahead where it was already beginning: Spain, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Sweden. The IMF saw no more (see “Unforeseen downturns”). Misses both ways suggest a downturn is hard to see in advance, not that forecasts are always too rosy.

    A question for this picture

    If a downturn shows only where it has already begun, what can a year-ahead forecast offer?

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