Afghanistan: 3 downturns since 2020; the IMF expected none a year ahead
Afghanistan, real GDP, 2020–2025
Every time it expected growth, +4.2% on average. The widest gap: 2022, expected +4.5%, outcome −6.2%.
More
GDP growth is how much the volume of everything a country’s economy produced changed in a year, net of price rises. Below zero, the economy shrank. Every April the IMF forecasts the next year; here that forecast is set against what happened.
Blue: GDP growth in the IMF’s latest data, dots mark the years of decline. Orange: what the IMF expected for each year in the April before. The dashed line is zero: below it the economy shrinks.
- 2020: forecast in April 2019 → latest data
+3.5% → −2.4%
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2019 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- 2021: forecast in April 2020 → latest data
+4.5% → −14.5%
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2020 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- 2022: forecast in April 2021 → latest data
+4.5% → −6.2%
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
A downturn is a year when a country’s real GDP fell (growth below −0.05%, i.e. −0.1% or less once rounded) in the IMF’s latest data (April 2026). The forecast is the April World Economic Outlook of the year before; “expected a fall” means forecast growth below zero. Countries and years 2008–2025 with both a forecast and an outcome.
A year-ahead forecast almost always shows growth: downturns usually come from events not visible a year earlier (crises, commodity price crashes, wars, the pandemic). The IMF will still revise recent outcomes.
A question for this picture
What do these downturns have in common, and could any of them have been seen a year ahead?