1. MigrationAfghanistan

   Afghanistan: in 2020–2023 net migration was lower than 11 of 12 UN projections assumed

   The 2019 projection, for example, expected that in 2020–2023 60k more people would leave than arrive a year; by the UN's current estimate, 335k more left than arrived a year. Projections 1998–2022 are all checked against the same recent years, so they are not 12 independent tests.

   Source: UN World Population Prospects 1998–2024; national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• Afghanistan: more babies born than in Russia
• Afghanistan: 17% fewer babies in 1983 than before the war; 19% more in countries without war
• Afghanistan: 3 downturns since 2020; the IMF expected none a year ahead
• Afghanistan: women live longer than 10 of 12 UN projections expected — by 11.2 years (median)
• India: 18.5M natives live abroad, 3.9 times as many as the foreign-born living there
• Spain: once more natives lived abroad; now there are 5.5 times as many foreign-born residents

All findings →