Loading findings…
Chain · 5 cards
Where did energy forecasts go wrong?
In 2010 forecasters expected a fraction of the solar panels that were built. One miss or a pattern — and always in the same direction?
The cards, in order
- The IEA in 2010: 110 GW of solar panels worldwide by 2020. The outcome: 721 GW
Was it one IEA miss, or did others miss too?
- US: the EIA under-projected solar generation in 10 of 10 five-year-ahead projections
If solar was underestimated, what was overestimated?
- US: the EIA over-projected coal use in 15 of 15 five-year-ahead projections
Where did that leave coal in the US itself?
- United States: wind and sun have overtaken coal
Did forecasts also miss the other way?
- In 2011 the US EIA expected 3,731 TWh of nuclear generation worldwide by 2020. The outcome: 2,593 TWh
Forecasts missed in both directions
By 2020 the world had 6.6 times the solar panels the IEA expected, and the EIA over-projected US coal use in all 15 projections. Yet nuclear output came in 31% below the projection. The misses are where an industry changed faster than expected: up for solar, down for coal and nuclear.
Solar above the IEA projection
6,6
US coal projections above the outcome
15
Nuclear output below the projection
31%
Wind and sun overtook coal in the US
2024