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  1. EnergyWorld

    The IEA in 2010: 110 GW of solar panels worldwide by 2020. The outcome: 721 GW

    110 GWexpected by 2020 (IEA, 2010)
    721 GWoutcome

    world solar PV capacity, GW

    01,0002,000201520352030

    6.6 times more. The level the main scenario expected by 2035 (406 GW) was passed in 2018. In 2025: 2,397 GW.

    Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006–2019 and EIA international statistics; IEA World Energy Outlook 2010; IRENAOpen on the chart →
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    Every year the International Energy Agency publishes the World Energy Outlook. Its main scenario is a calculation under countries’ announced policies; the authors say it is not a forecast, yet governments and investors steer by it.

    The line: world solar PV capacity in IRENA data. Dots: what the IEA’s 2010 main scenario expected for 2020, 2025 and 2035.

    New Policies Scenario of World Energy Outlook 2010, Annex A, World, row “Solar PV” (PDF p.622 (printed p.620); row "Solar PV"). Outcome: IRENA (Renewable Capacity Statistics, IRENASTAT). The IEA counts PV capacity in DC, IRENA mostly in AC: the comparison slightly understates the gap.

    Misses both ways: the same IEA editions overestimated nuclear power; for 2020 the 2010 scenario expected 28% more nuclear generation than came. IEA figures are quoted within its terms of use.

    A question for this picture

    Why did solar outrun every projection while nuclear lagged behind them?

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