1. EnergyWorld

   In 2011 the US EIA expected 3,731 TWh of nuclear generation worldwide by 2020. The outcome: 2,593 TWh

   3,731 TWhexpected by 2020 (2011 outlook)

   2,593 TWhoutcome

   world nuclear generation, TWh

   31% less: the opposite miss to solar. After the 2011 Fukushima accident some reactors were shut down and new builds dragged on.

   Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006–2019 and EIA international statistics; IEA World Energy Outlook 2010; IRENAOpen on the chart →

   More

   The US Energy Information Administration published the International Energy Outlook. Its reference case assumes current laws and technologies: a calculation, not a promise, yet investments were planned on it.

   The solid line: the outcome in EIA statistics. Dashed: projections of different editions, the one in the text highlighted.

   • 2011 outlook for 2020

     3,731 TWh

     EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

   • Actual 2020

     2,593 TWh

     EIA international statistics

   Reference case of the International Energy Outlook editions 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017; outcome: EIA international statistics (INTL bulk file). Net generation.

   Energy projections missed both ways: solar and wind grew much faster, nuclear and coal in older projections slower. A scenario is not a forecast, as the authors themselves say, yet it is used as one.

   A question for this picture

   Why did the projection extend past growth again and again, not its acceleration?

More findings

• United States: wind and sun have overtaken coal
• Germany: wind and sun have overtaken coal
• China generates more electricity than the US, the EU and India combined
• Ethiopia: all its electricity is made without coal, gas or oil, but there is 18 times less of it per person than in a typical country
• United Kingdom: coal is almost gone; wind and sun make 36% of the power
• Chile: wind and sun have overtaken coal

All findings →