Chain · 11 cards
How fast is the familiar world going?
Two thirds of humanity already live where too few children are born to replace the generations — in 1970 it was 11%. What else is going faster than expected?
The cards, in order
- Two thirds of humanity lives where too few children are born to replace the generation
Did the forecasts see it coming — for Europe, at least?
- Europe: in 26 of 35 countries UN projections usually expected women to have more children
Where in Europe do deaths already outnumber births?
- Deaths outnumber births in 33 of 50 European countries; in 1990 there were 7
Newcomers used to fill the gap. Will there be enough of them now?
- Eastern EU and the Balkans, where workers left for the West: 28% fewer people aged 20–39 than in 1985
Who will do the work as the old grow in number?
- Europe: 31 people over 65 per 100 aged 15–64, 50 by 2050 in the UN projection
And do those growing up now learn better than earlier generations?
- Mathematics at 15: in 21 of 33 European countries 2022 was the worst year of the test
Is it only schoolchildren?
- Adults who read only simple texts: up in 14 of 27 countries over 11 years, down in none
Does a degree at least protect them?
- Europe: a degree's edge is fading — smaller than in 2005 in 19 of 28 countries
Is it only the degree? How do the young fare in work at all?
- EU: unemployment at ages 15–24 is almost three times the adult rate
Can young people afford to start adult life?
- Europe: housing outpaces other prices — dearer than in 2015 in 29 of 33 countries
Can it still be turned around?
- Europe: future mothers can no longer be added — 19% fewer women aged 20–39 than in 1990
The world is going faster than expected
- 67% of people below replacement
- 26 of 35 countries: the UN expected more children
- 33 of 50 countries: more deaths than births
- −28% young adults in the eastern EU since 1985
- 31 → 50 over 65 per 100 people aged 15–64
- 21 of 33 countries: worst maths in 2022
- 14 of 27 countries: adults read worse
- 19 of 28 countries: a degree counts for less than in 2005
- 15.5% jobless at 15–24, adults 5.3%
- 29 of 33 countries: housing dearer than in 2015
- −24% mothers of 2045 against 1990
Some of it can no longer come back. The world school prepared for is going — what comes next needs a different preparation.