Two thirds of humanity lives where too few children are born to replace the generation
In 2023, 67% of people on Earth, in 130 countries out of 237: women there have fewer than 2.1 children. In 1990 it was 24%, in 1970 11%.
More
For a population not to shrink without newcomers, women need about 2.1 children each: two replace the parents and a tenth covers those who die before becoming parents. The card adds up the population of every country whose fertility is below that bar.
The line is the share of people on Earth living in such countries, by year; the dashed line marks one half.
- Share of humanity in countries with fertility below 2.1 %
1970: 11% · 1990: 24% · 2023: 67% (130/237)
Total fertility (children per woman) and population: UN estimates and national statistics for 237 countries and territories; the bar of 2.1 is the same for every country.
Where child mortality is high, replacement needs more than 2.1, so the bar is a cautious one. A country’s population also changes through migration and through how large its generations of women are.
A question for this picture
Which large country will be next to fall below 2.1?