Europe: in 26 of 35 countries UN projections usually expected women to have more children
In 10 countries every projection since 1998 missed this way, among them Italy, Finland and France. In the east (9 countries, among them Moldova and Romania) older projections more often expected fewer children.
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Every two or three years the UN issues a fertility projection for each country. Here every past projection is set against what happened in the years it covered. In most of Europe the projections kept expecting fertility to recover, and it did not. In the east it was the other way round: after the collapse of the 1990s fertility rose more than expected.
Bars: number of European countries where all UN projections expected more children per woman than happened; where most did; where they more often expected fewer or erred evenly both ways.
- Switzerland: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −12%
- Finland: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −27%
- France: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −11%
- Ireland: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −18%
- Italy: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −18%
- Lithuania: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −23%
- Netherlands: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −15%
- Norway: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −21%
- Poland: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −17%
- Sweden: projections expecting more projections
12 / 12; typical miss −18%
- Albania: projections expecting more projections
10 / 11; typical miss −21%
- Austria: projections expecting more projections
11 / 12; typical miss −12%
UN projections (World Population Prospects 1998–2022) against current UN estimates and national statistics, children per woman. For each projection, its latest checkable period. European countries in the UN grouping with over 1 million people and at least six checked projections: 35.
The recent 2022 projection already missed the usual way there too: Romania, Hungary and Latvia came in below it. Errors go both ways, but not evenly. Each country has its own card on the UN projections.
A question for this picture
How many babies are born in Europe now? Almost half as many as at the 1959 peak.