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Chain · 5 cards
Fewer babies than expected: where, and by how much?
Fewer babies are born worldwide than at the 2012 peak. Did projections see it coming, and does the trend ever turn after the bottom?
The cards, in order
- The world: 10% fewer babies are born than in 2012
Did projections expect it — for China, say?
- China: all 12 UN projections since 1998 expected more births
Is that peculiar to China, or true wherever few children are born?
- Where few children were already being born, the UN expected fertility to recover — and was wrong
How low can fertility go?
- South Korea: fertility hit 0.72 in 2023, the lowest since 1950, and has edged up since
Does it ever turn after the bottom?
- South Korea: births up for the second year in a row
A recovery was expected; a decline came
10% fewer babies are born worldwide than in 2012. Where few children were born, UN projections typically overestimated fertility by 8%, and in China all 12 projections expected more births than came. Errors go both ways, but not evenly. South Korea has risen for a second year after its low of 0.72, but 0.80 children per woman is far from the 2.1 that replaces a generation.
Fewer births than at the 2012 peak
10%
Typical UN overestimate where fertility was low
8%
UN projections for China above the outcome
12
Children per woman in Korea, 2025
0,80