South Africa’s government in 2014: life expectancy of 63 by 2019. It reached 66.1
Government of South Africa (MTSF 2014-2019)8 August 2014 · Medium Term Strategic Framework 2014-2019 in numbers, gov.za
«63 – life expectancy by 2019»
Life expectancy was 66.1 years in 2019 against 63; the 63 mark was passed in 2014.
Fact: Всемирный банк, WDI (оценки ООН) / World Bank WDI (UN estimates)
The 63 mark was passed in the very year the plan was adopted: 63.2 years in 2014. The gain came mostly from HIV treatment; in the pandemic, in 2021, it fell to 62 years.
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In the early 2000s HIV cut years off South African lives. Zuma’s government wrote 63 years by 2019 into its five-year programme. Here the goal is beside what came out.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Government of South Africa (MTSF 2014-2019), Medium Term Strategic Framework 2014-2019 in numbers, gov.za quote
«63 – life expectancy by 2019»
Medium Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) 2014-2019 in numbers, gov.za (8 Aug 2014)
- What happened exceeded
Life expectancy was 66.1 years in 2019 against 63; the 63 mark was passed in 2014.
Всемирный банк, WDI (оценки ООН) / World Bank WDI (UN estimates)
Quote: «Medium Term Strategic Framework 2014–2019 in numbers» (gov.za, 8 August 2014). Fact: the World Bank, from UN estimates. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Statistics South Africa and UN estimates differ by 1–2 years. The gain is mostly from antiretroviral therapy for HIV. In 2021, with COVID-19, it fell to 62 years.
A question for this picture
What moves life expectancy more: government programmes or affordable medicines?