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  1. Science and spaceUnited States

    Obama in 2009: the US would spend over 3% of GDP on research. That happened in 2019

    Barack Obama27 April 2009 · remarks at the annual meeting of the National Academy of Sciences

    «So I'm here today to set this goal: We will devote more than 3 percent of our GDP to research and development.»

    Did it come true?3 years late

    2016: 2.84% of GDP against “more than 3%”; above 3% from 2019 (3.14%); 2023: 3.45%.

    Fact: World Bank, World Development Indicators (UNESCO Institute for Statistics), GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS

    2.7533.252008201020122014201820202016% of GDP2.837 in 2016goal 3 by 20160.163 shortsaid

    At the end of Obama’s second term, in 2016, it was 2.84%. In 2019, 3.14%; in 2023, 3.45%.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    In 2009 Barack Obama spoke at the National Academy of Sciences and set a goal: to spend more than 3% of GDP on research and development, as at the height of the space race. Here is what the US actually spent, government and companies together.

    First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.

    Goal: Barack Obama’s remarks at the annual meeting of the National Academy of Sciences, 27 April 2009 (published by the White House). Fact: World Bank, World Development Indicators (UNESCO Institute for Statistics data), GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    The speech named no deadline; here it is taken as the end of Obama’s second term, a choice of this project. The goal counted private spending too; the growth after 2016 came mostly from companies.

    A question for this picture

    A goal with no deadline came true ten years later: does it count as met?

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