Lithuania: more deaths than births for over 25 years in a row
UN estimate, 2023
By UN estimates, 40.9k people died and 21.4k were born in 2023. Deaths have clearly outnumbered births since 1994 (in 1993 they were almost level). In 1950 there were 1.9 times as many births as deaths.
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Births and deaths are the people born and the people who died in a calendar year, by UN estimates. With more deaths, a population shrinks on its own; it can grow only through people moving in.
Blue is the card’s first number, orange the second; they share one scale. The ring marks where the lines crossed; the gap after it is shaded. The large numbers are the latest year both lines share.
- Deaths thousand deaths per year
29 (1950) → 41 (2023)
- Births thousand births per year
54 (1950) → 21 (2023)
- Population thousand persons, 1 July
3,680 (1993) → 2,854 (2023)
Both lines are UN estimates for 1950–2023. «Clearly more» means deaths above births by at least 3%; «almost level», a difference under 3% either way. In the latest year deaths must exceed births by at least 5%. The years in the headline count only consecutive years with a clear margin, rounded down to five. The ring marks where the lines crossed before that.
Both lines are UN estimates (World Population Prospects 2024), made the same way for every country. National statistics can put the turning point in another year, especially where births and deaths were almost level. Deaths also rise because large generations grow old; it need not mean higher mortality. Population change includes migration and revisions.
A question for this picture
What tipped the balance more: fewer children or more old people?