Ireland: 8 years in a row, the budget better than the European Commission’s forecast
Ireland: budget balance, 2012–2019
2012–2019: every year both next-year forecasts (spring and autumn) missed the same way, by 1.0% of GDP on average.
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Twice a year, in spring and autumn, the European Commission forecasts every EU country for this year and the next. Here: the next-year forecasts against the outcome in the latest data.
By target year: blue, the last forecast for that year; orange, the outcome. The shading is the error; all these years it stays on one side.
- May 2011 forecast for 2012
−8.8% → −8.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2011 forecast for 2012
−8.6% → −8.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2012 forecast for 2013
−7.5% → −6.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2012 forecast for 2013
−7.5% → −6.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2013 forecast for 2014
−4.2% → −3.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2013 forecast for 2014
−4.3% → −3.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2013 forecast for 2014
−5.0% → −3.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2014 forecast for 2015
−4.3% → −2.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2014 forecast for 2015
−4.2% → −2.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2014 forecast for 2015
−2.9% → −2.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2015 forecast for 2016
−3.1% → −0.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2015 forecast for 2016
−2.9% → −0.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2015 forecast for 2016
−1.5% → −0.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2016 forecast for 2017
−0.8% → −0.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2016 forecast for 2017
−0.6% → −0.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2016 forecast for 2017
−0.5% → −0.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2017 forecast for 2018
−0.6% → +0.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2017 forecast for 2018
−0.3% → +0.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2017 forecast for 2018
−0.2% → +0.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2018 forecast for 2019
−0.2% → +0.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2018 forecast for 2019
−0.1% → +0.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
A year counts when every forecast of it made a year earlier missed the same way by more than 0.05; two editions for one year are one check. Years with a known outcome: 25. Ten selected long runs are shown. Error signs can be dependent; countries, variables and windows were searched. The probability of such a run arising by chance has not been estimated here. Outcome: AMECO, spring 2026.
Fiscal forecasts assume announced policy; new laws, crises and statistical revisions (new accounting rules) count as “error”. A run of errors with the same sign can reflect shared assumptions, shocks or data revisions; this selection does not separate them or rule out chance.
A question for this picture
What explains the run of errors: assumptions, shared shocks or data revisions?