Budget deficit promises in 6 countries: 3 of 8 came true by the deadline. Italy twice ended the year better than planned
- France: below 3% all term4.7%
- Ghana: 5% by 20166.75%
- Italy: 2.4% in 20191.5%
- Italy: 4.3% in 20243.4%
- Ireland: 3% by 20152%
- Britain: halve, to 5.1%5.7%
- Britain: a surplus by 20192%
- Ukraine: up to 3% in 20205.92%
Budget deficit in the deadline year, % of GDP
3 of 8 came true by the deadline. Italy twice ended the year better than planned.
Italy planned a 2.4% of GDP deficit for 2019 and got 1.5%, 4.3% for 2024 and got 3.4%. France kept the deficit below 3% in 2018–2019, then in 2020 it rose to 8.9%.
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Governments and parties promise the share of the economy they will cut the budget deficit to. Here are eight such promises beside the deficit in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Britain: a surplus by 2019 — Conservative Party (David Cameron), 2015 % of GDP, deficit
promised 0 by 2019; fact 2 (Infinity%). The deficit was 2.0% of GDP in 2018/19; the ONS series shows no surplus since.
- Ukraine: up to 3% in 2020 — Petro Poroshenko, 2015 % of GDP (deficit)
promised 3 by 2020; fact 6 (197%). The deficit stayed below 3% of GDP in 2015–2019 (1.2–2.5%); in 2020 it was 5.9%.
- France: below 3% all term — Emmanuel Macron, 2017 % of GDP, general government deficit (Maastricht)
promised 3 by 2022; fact 5 (157%). The pledge was a deficit below 3% of GDP throughout the term; it was below 3% in 2018–2019 (2.3% and 2.4%), then 8.9% in 2020 and 4.7% in 2022.
Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1 (данные INSEE по процедуре чрезмерного дефицита); база Макроскопа (МВФ WEO)
- Ghana: 5% by 2016 — National Democratic Congress (John Mahama), 2012 % of GDP, general government deficit
promised 5 by 2016; fact 7 (135%). The deficit was 6.7% of GDP in 2016 against 5%; it was at or below 5% only in 2015 (4.0%).
- Britain: halve, to 5.1% — Labour Party (Gordon Brown), 2010 % of GDP, deficit
promised 5 by 2014; fact 6 (112%). The deficit fell from 10.2% of GDP in 2009/10 to 5.7% in 2013/14, a 44% cut; it halved in 2015/16 (4.1%).
- Italy: 4.3% in 2024 — Government of Italy (Giorgia Meloni), Ministry of Economy and Finance (Giancarlo Giorgetti), 2023 general government deficit, % of GDP
promised 4 by 2024; fact 3 (79%). The plan was a deficit of no more than 4.3% of GDP in 2024; the outcome was 3.4%.
Eurostat, government deficit/surplus (EDP notification, April 2026)
- Ireland: 3% by 2015 — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and Labour, Enda Kenny), 2011 % of GDP, deficit
promised 3 by 2015; fact 2 (67%). The deficit was 2.0% of GDP in 2015, down from 13.5% in 2011.
- Italy: 2.4% in 2019 — Government of Italy (Giuseppe Conte), Ministry of Economy and Finance (Giovanni Tria), 2018 general government deficit, % of GDP
promised 2 by 2019; fact 2 (63%). The plan was a deficit of 2.4% of GDP in 2019; the outcome was 1.5%.
Eurostat, government deficit/surplus (EDP notification, April 2026)
Promises: verbatim from party manifestos, government programmes, Italian budget documents and a Ukrainian decree. Fact: Eurostat, IMF, the UK Office for National Statistics. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The Italian numbers are government plan targets, not campaign promises. Labour lost the 2010 election; the coalition cut the deficit, by half by 2015/16. Theresa May’s government dropped the 2019 surplus target after the 2016 referendum. Ireland’s target came from the EU–IMF programme; in 2015 Irish GDP jumped from corporate asset moves. The deadlines of France and Ukraine fell on the pandemic.
A question for this picture
Why do plan targets for the deficit come true more often than campaign promises?